The paper introduces a modified version of the classical Coupon Collector’s Problem entailing exchanges and cooperation between multiple players. Results of the development show that, within a proper Markov framework, the complexity of the Cooperative Multiplayer Coupon Collectors’ Problem can be attacked with an eye to the modeling of social strategies and community behaviors. The cost of coop...

We present the results from an on-going project financed by the Danish PSO-fund where a number of subjects relevant for further automation and improvement of short term wind power forecasts methods are studied. The technological basis of the project is adaptive forecast methods as the methods forming the basis of WPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool) – a well proven system for wind power forecastin...

Abstract. There are relatively few scientific or technology breakthroughs whose significance is immediately and widely apparent. Without context, most scientific or technological developments run the risk of seeming trivial or irrelevant in the eyes of the general public. Historical context helps explain the nature of a discovery or innovation; but explaining its significance frequently require...

J. W. Cortada H. E. Fraser Companies operating in industries that are subject to fundamental changes caused by innovations in science or technology search for ways to anticipate future business and scientific or technological developments so that they can react to them in profitable ways. Using the example of the pharmaceutical industry, which is currently moving from chemically based medicatio...

One of the marvels of modern society is the general adoption of technologies that only a few decades ago were not only unknown but unthinkable. Advances have come with dizzying rapidity. Innovations in medicine such as knee and hip replacement have become routine and we are at the cusp of personal genomic analysis for medical forecasting. Nowhere is this technology more visible than in informat...

Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the...

Software process modeling has undergone extensive changes in the last three decades, impacting process' structure, degree of control, degree of visualization, degree of automation and integration. These changes can be attributed to several factors. This paper studies two types of these factors and their growth over the time dimension, and assesses their effect on the evolution of process modeli...

In recent years, authors have focused on modeling and forecasting volatility in financial series it is crucial for the characterization of markets, portfolio optimization and asset valuation. One of the most used methods to forecast market volatility is the linear regression. Nonetheless, the errors in prediction using this approach are often quite high. Hence, continued research is conducted t...

in this paper semi-markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. semi-markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. in semi-markov models each zone can be considered as a state...