Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled ...

Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (a low projection), A1B (a medium projection), and A2 (a high projection) during the twenty-first ...

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains a...

We used the ̳Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system‘ (OGIM) to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections ...

[1] Tebaldi et al. [2005] present a Bayesian approach to determining probability distribution functions (PDFs) of temperature change at regional scales, from the output of a multi-model ensemble, run under the same scenario of future anthropogenic emissions. The main characteristic of the method is the formalization of the two criteria of bias and convergence that the REA method [Giorgi and Mea...

To explore the relationship between tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing with changing emissions, we compiled two sets of global scenarios for the emissions of the ozone precursors methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) up to the year 2030 and implemented them in two global Chemistry Transport Models. The “Current Legisl...

Abstract There is a lack of consensus on whether North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) outer size and structure (i.e., change in winds with increasing radius from the TC) will differ by late twenty-first century. Hence, this work seeks to examine TC wind field century using multiple simulations under CMIP3 SRES A1B CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenarios. Specifically, our analysis examines data GFDL High-Resolu...

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Global Climate Models (GCMs) precipitation scenarios are often characterized by biases and coarse resolution that limit their direct application for basin level hydrological modeling. Bias-correction and spatial disaggregation methods are ...

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socioeconomic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ec...