Successful financial risk management requires constant grappling with the known, the unknown and the unknowable (“KuU”). But think of KuU as more than simply an acronym for “the known, the unknown, and the unknowable”; indeed, we think of it as a conceptual framework. We believe that “KuU thinking” can promote improved decision making—helping us to recognize situations of K and u and U and thei...

Does the probability of moving from a recession into an expansion depend on how long the economy has been in recession? Similarly, does the probability that the economy may fall into a recession depend on the length of the expansion phase? The present paper tries to answer these two questions, at least as far as the U.S. economy is concerned. Some authors have already dealt with the duration-de...

Hamilton (1989) introduced the Markov-switching models (from now on MS) to the business cycle researchers. He applied the MS model to the real U.S. GDP and showed how good the probability of being in recession or expansion generated by his model matched the NBER dating. Since then, the studies on business cycles that exploited the MS model have grown exponentially. Nevertheless, the basic MS mo...

Not much is known about event apprehension, the earliest stage of information processing in elicited language production studies, using pictorial stimuli. A reason for our lack of knowledge on this process is that apprehension happens very rapidly (<350 ms after stimulus onset, Griffin & Bock 2000), making it difficult to measure the process directly. To broaden our understanding of apprehensio...

REFERENCES 1. Heurgué A, Vitry F, Diebold MD, et al. Overlap syndrome of primary biliary cirrhosis and autoimmune hepatitis: a retrospective study of 115 cases of autoimmune liver disease. Gastroenterol Clin Biol 2007; 31:17-25. 2. Rust C, Beuers U. Overlap syndromes among autoimmune liver diseases. World J Gastroenterol 2008; 14:3368-73. 3. Ebert EC. Gastrointestinal and hepatic manifestations...

In this paper, we discuss discrete-time tests for duration dependence. Two of our test statistics are new to the econometrics literature, and we make an important distinction between the discrete and continuous time frameworks. We then test for duration dependence in business and stock market cycles, and compare our results for business cycles with those of Diebold and Rudebusch (1990, 1991). O...

Alizadeh, Brandt, and Diebold [2002. Journal of Finance 57, 1047–1091] propose estimating stochastic volatility models by quasi-maximum likelihood using data on the daily range of the log asset price process. We suggest a related Bayesian procedure that delivers exact likelihood based inferences. Our approach also incorporates data on the daily return and accommodates a nonzero drift. We illust...