Donald Trump’s election was a significant surprise. The reaction of company stock prices to the election reflects shifts in investor expectations about economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. High-beta stocks outperformed, presumably due to strengthened growth expectations. Expectations of significant corporate tax cuts boosted high-tax firms, but hurt firms with significant net operating los...

This paper introduces heterogeneous expectations into a New Keynesian model. Our primary theoretical contribution is to provide an aggregation result for a model with nominal rigidities and heterogeneous bounded rationality. We incorporate bounded rationality at the individual agent level and determine restrictions on expectations operators sufficient to imply aggregate IS and AS relations of t...

We estimate a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over finite horizon. The finite-horizon planning (FHP) outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK as well other models. In FHP model, are forward-looking thinking about events their horizon but backward-looking regarding beyond that point. This gives rise to substantial aggregate persistence without r...

In this paper we consider Bayesian implementation of rational-expectations Lindahl allocations for economic environments with public goods when agents are incompletely informed about environments. We construct a continuous and feasible mechanism whose Bayesian equilibrium allocations coincide with rational-expectations Lindahl allocations. We not only allow the types of individuals to be unknow...

We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First, a stylized asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price-rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price-rent r...

The literature views aggressive trading behavior as the key for representativeness heuristic traders to survive in competition with rational traders. This paper provides another reason. That is, in this dynamic model of a competitive securities market, representativeness heuristic traders can derive more expected profit from the misvaluations (created by noise traders) than can rational traders...

We are the first paper to analyse and confirm the existence and extent of rational informational herding and rational informational contrarianism in a financial market experiment, and to compare and contrast these with the equivalent irrational phenomena. In our study, subjects generally behaved according to benchmark rationality. Moreover, traders who should herd or be contrarian in theory are...