Banks’ exposure to fluctuations in interest rates strongly forecasts excess Treasury bond returns. This result is consistent with a bank-centric view of the market for interest rate risk. Banks’ activities — accepting deposits and making loans — naturally exposes their balance sheets to changes in interest rates. In equilibrium, the bond risk premium compensates banks for bearing these fluctuat...

We propose a new model of exchange rates, which yields a theory of the forward premium puzzle. Our explanation combines two ingredients: the possibility of rare economic disasters, and an asset view of the exchange rate. Our model is frictionless, has complete markets, and works for an arbitrary number of countries. In the model, rare worldwide disasters can occur and affect each country’s prod...

The subjective distribution of growth rates of aggregate consumption is characterized by pessimism if it is first-order stochastically dominated by the objective distribution. Uniform pessimism is a leftward translation of the objective distribution of the logarithm of the growth rate. The subjective distribution is characterized by doubt if it is mean-preserving spread of the objective distrib...

In this paper‎, ‎the impacts of premium bounds of put option contracts on the operation of put option and day-ahead electricity markets are studied‎. ‎To this end‎, ‎first a comprehensive equilibrium model for a joint put option and day-ahead markets is presented‎. ‎Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets‎, ‎uncertainty in fuel price, impact of premium bounds, and elasticity of con...

Noise traders as one of the key elements of the market play a significant role in determining the market volatilities, returns, and stock market mispricing. Hence, this study attempts to scrutinize the role of noise trading in capital asset pricing. Therefore, by using daily data, samples including 14105 data of 200 companies listed on stock exchange were selected and noise trading index was es...

BACKGROUND Within the United States, public insurance premiums are used both to discourage private health policy holders from dropping coverage and to reduce state budget costs. Prior research suggests that the odds of having private coverage and being uninsured increase with increases in public insurance premiums. The aim of this paper is to test effects of Children's Health Insurance Program ...

The mean, co-variability, and predictability of the return of different classes of financial assets challenge the rational economic model for an explanation. The unconditional mean aggregate equity premium is almost seven percent per year and remains high after adjusting downwards the sample mean premium by introducing prior beliefs about the stationarity of the price-dividend ratio and the (no...

OBJECTIVE To assess whether new premiums in SCHIP affect rates of disenrollment and reenrollment in SCHIP and whether they have spillover enrollment effects on Medicaid. DATA SOURCE We used SCHIP administrative enrollment data from Arizona and Kentucky. The enrollment data covered July 2001 to December 2005 in Arizona and November 2001 to August 2004 in Kentucky. STUDY DESIGN We used admini...

We decompose the term structure of expected equity returns into (1) the real short rate, (2) a premium for holding real long-term bonds, or the real duration premium, the excess returns of nominal long-term bonds over real bonds which reflects (3) expected inflation and (4) inflation risk, and (5) a real cashflow risk premium, which is the excess return of equity over nominal bonds. The shape o...

An installment option is a European option in which the premium, instead of being paid up-front, is paid in a series of installments. If all installments are paid the holder receives the exercise value, but the holder has the right to terminate payments on any payment date, in which case the option lapses with no further payments on either side. We discuss pricing and risk management for these ...