A poll consists of a question and a set of predefined answers from which voters can select. We present the new problem of vote prediction on comments, which involves determining which of these answers a voter selected given a comment she wrote after voting. To address this task, we exploit not only the information extracted from the comments but also extra-textual information such as user demog...

There is much interest in crowdsourcing information that is distributed among many individuals, such as the likelihood of future events, election outcomes, the quality of products, or the consequence of a decision. To obtain accurate outcomes, various game-theoretic incentive schemes have been proposed. However, only prediction markets have been tried in practice. In this paper, we describe an ...

Crowd-sourcing is increasingly being used for providing answers to online polls and surveys. However, existing systems, while taking care of the mechanics of attracting crowd workers, poll building, and payment, provide little that would help the survey-maker or pollster to obtain statistically significant results devoid of even the obvious selection biases. This paper proposes InterPoll, a pla...

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically, randomness in scientific estimation has been generally assumed to arise from unmeasured factors which are viewed as measurement noise. However, when combining subje...

Electronic voting systems are created to facilitate the election, accelerate voting and counting votes and increase turnout for the election. The main problems of the electronic systems are related with the assurance of system security (cryptographic security and protection against frauds) and a guarantee that the voters are anonymous. The authorization of voters and the anonymity of them seem ...

Abstract Which issue-related motives underlie voters’ decision to switch parties at the polls? Do switchers stick newly chosen party, or do they oscillate in a short-term way intermediate elections? Relying on behavioral theory of elections, we assumed aspiration-based voting boundedly rational voters. We elicited and stay an open-ended survey question format identify individual dominant aspira...

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of...