Though 'supply-side economics' is politically ascendant in the United States, the relative importance of supply versus demand factors in r,x:ent U.S. macroeconomic history remains in strong dispute. The direct effects of the oil shocks on aggregate supply, for example, do not aI:,pear to have been severe, in sharp distinction to the experience of other OECD econoJaies. Real wages iin the U.S. f...

This paper investigates the uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market fundamental shocks, namely supply, aggregate demand oil-specific shocks. We do so by first proposing a novel uncertainty index that is measured stochastic volatility unpredictable component prices. then employ nonlinear model find all reactions production, real price oil, global economic activity to struc...

We provide a model for analyzing effects of the tax system and spending programs on the determination of government spending and taxpayer welfare. An improvement in the efficiency of either taxes or spending would reduce political pressure for suppressing the growth of government and thereby increase total tax revenue and spending. We demonstrate the similarity of the political responses to rev...

This paper reports the short-term forecasting power of the large Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model originally developed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004a, 2004b; PSW), and subsequently fine-tuned and re-estimated over the period 1979Q1–2003Q4 by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007; DdPS).1 The GVAR model explicitly specifies interdependencies between different countries and...

Interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. Developing countries are better suited for it, however, in light of big supply shocks and terms of trade shocks, such as monsoon rains and oil import price shocks in the case of India. Under annual inflation targeting (IT), the full impact of adverse supply shocks is felt as lost real GDP. NGDP targeti...

The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positiv...

A new time series model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, are caused by unobserved positive shocks. The generating mechanism of these latent shocks is a censored regression model, where linear combinations of lagged explanatory variables lead to positive shocks, while otherwise shocks...

The objectives of this study is to investigate the responses of livestock economic variables (namely, output, consumption, prices, labor and capital) to changes in agricultural productivity, monetary, oil revenue and government spending (fiscal policy). To do so, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed for Iran economy disaggregating livestock. Accordingly, the empi...