TEP, the Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme, was launched in 1997, as the first one in Central and Eastern Europe, to provide inputs to a national strategy by identifying socio-economic challenges and developing broad visions for the future. Specifically, it was aimed at analysing Hungary’s current strengths and weaknesses, developing scenarios (visions) and formulating policy proposals t...

This paper reviews the quantitative methods developed at selected authorities for stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank-specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Authorities with a mandate for financial stability are particularly interested in quantifying the macro-to-micro linkages and have developed...

We argue that modelling emotions among agents in artificial societies will further the computational study of social norms. The appraisal theory of emotions is presented as theoretical underpinning of Jon Elster’s view that social norms are sustained not only by material sanctions but also by emotions such as shame and contempt. Appraisal theory suggests the following twofold relationship betwe...

U ncertainty is an amorphous concept. It refl ects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of fi rms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertaint...

We argue that modelling emotions among agents in artificial societies will further the computational study of social norms. The appraisal theory of emotions is presented as theoretical underpinning of Jon Elster’s view that social norms are sustained not only by material sanctions but also by emotions such as shame and contempt. Appraisal theory suggests the following twofold relationship betwe...

This paper uses longitudinal data from the Dutch OSA Labor Supply Panel (1980-2000) to examine the phenomenon of unemployment scarring in the Netherlands. The study extends current research by not only asking if earlier unemployment damages subsequent employment careers and wages but also explores variation by the level of unemployment insurance benefits and key individual characteristics such ...

Introduction. This paper reports on a study undertaken for the UK Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC), which explored the economic implications of alternative scholarly publishing models. Rather than simply summarising the study’s findings, this paper focuses on the approach and presents a step-by-step account of the research process, highlighting the combination of process mapping, acti...

2 Model Designs 3 2.1 The Base Macro-economic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.2 The Demand For Credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.2.1 Fixed Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.2.2 Residential Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.2.3 Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2.3 The Supply of Credit . . . . . . . . ...

Welfare chauvinism is largely understood as the view that benefits of welfare state should primarily be given to native population, and not shared with immigrant populations. Using a multilevel approach, we analyse in Europe test see how different contextual macro-economic conditions may influence chauvinistic attitudes Europe, particular focus on nuances unemployment. We also individuals’ subj...