The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) involves pronounced variations in convection and large-scale circulation throughout the tropical troposphere. In addition, the MJO is also related to dynamic and thermodynamic variability near the surface and the upper ocean. This study uses observational data to characterize the changes in surface heat fluxes and sea surface temperature (SST) during the life...

Indonesia has diverse topographical conditions that result in having a unique climate. One of the climate elements to be studied is rainfall, because rainfall different pattern each region, this caused by several phenomena factors affect pattern, including El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden Julian (MJO). Medan City capital North Sumatra province which one ...

Given the increasing attention in forecasting weather and climate on subseasonal time scale recent years, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced to support Climate Process Teams (CPTs) which aim improve Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) prediction by NOAA’s global models. Our team supported this CPT program focuses primarily improvement of upper ocean mixing parameterization...

Substantial (∼2°C) basin averaged sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the Banda Sea occurred less than a 14-day period during 2015 boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Such rapid and large associated with MJO has not been reported at least last two decades. Processes that control substantial event are examined using high-resolution ocean reanalysis one-dimensional (1-D) model sim...

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a major source of predictability on the sub-seasonal (10 to 90 d) timescale. An improved forecast MJO may have important socioeconomic impacts due influence both tropical and extratropical weather extremes. Although in last decades state-of-the-art climate models proved their capability for forecasting exceeding 5-week prediction skill, there sti...

Reproducing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains a challenge in many climate models. This study compares MJO simulation skills 17 pairs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Generally, characteristics are better reproduced CMIP6, their inter-model spreads obviously reduced CMIP6. However, most CMIP6 models still underestimate frequency initia...

6 This work studies the significance of north-south asymmetry in convection associated with 7 the 20–90-day Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) propagating across the equatorial Indo8 Pacific warm-pool region. Satellite infrared brightness temperature data in the tropical belt 9 for the period 1983–2006 were decomposed into components symmetric and antisymmetric 10 about the equator. Using a recent...

Motivated by an attempt to augment dynamical models in predicting the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and to provide a realistic benchmark to those models, the predictive skill of a multivariate lagregression statistical model has been comprehensively explored in the present study. The predictors of the benchmark model are the projection time series of the leading pair of EOFs of the combined ...

A probabilistic clustering technique is used to describe tropical cyclone tracks in the eastern North Pacific, based on their shape and location. The best-track dataset is decomposed in terms of three clusters; these clusters are analyzed in terms of genesis location, trajectory, landfall, intensity, seasonality, and their relationships with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Ju...

The impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on polar low (PL) activity are examined. We found that PL frequency increases over Irminger Sea and decreases Norwegian-Barents Seas following MJO Phases 2–4, nearly opposite changes for 6–8. Further analysis reveals significant anomalies static stability low-level baroclinicity different phases, which have opposing effects in many regions. dia...