An important aspect of learning is the ability to transfer knowledge to new contexts. However, in dynamic decision tasks, such as bargaining, firefighting, and process control, where decision makers must make repeated decisions under time pressure and outcome feedback may relate to any of a number of decisions, such transfer has proven elusive. This paper proposes a two-stage connectionist mode...

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EXPLOITING STRUCTURE IN COORDINATING MULTIPLE DECISION MAKERS

A decision maker (DM) prefers to allocate a limited number of prizes to the “highest-quality” agents. Although the DM is initially uniformed about quality, she can learn about quality through a review process before awarding prizes. Due to time constraints, however, the DM is unable to review all agents before making a decision. The method by which the DM allocates her limited attention affects...

ABSTRACT Decision makers will in an emergency situation often be interested in predictions of harmful environmental variables relative to a certain threshold. We are therefore examining the robustness of different methods which are supposed to give unbiased estimates relative to such a threshold, both for point predictions and areal averages. We are also interested in exceedance probabilities. ...

The theoretical literature on "herding" pertains to situations where people with private, incomplete information make public decisions in sequence. Hence, the first few decision makers reveal their information, and subsequent decision makers may follow an established pattern even when their private information suggests that they should deviate. This type of "information cascade" can occur with ...

BACKGROUND Little is known about what information affects men's decisions about prostate cancer screening. METHODS We developed a four-part decision aid about prostate cancer screening and tested it in men, ages 45-85, to determine how the information in each part--(1) the epidemiology of prostate cancer; (2) the PSA test; (3) prostate biopsy and treatment options for prostate cancer; and (4)...

Despite intense research on decision-making in action, we still know little about when decision-makers rely on deliberate vs. intuitive decision-making in decision situations under complexity and uncertainty. This paper studies decision-making modes (deliberate vs. intuitive) in complex task environments contingent on perceived complexity, experience, and decision style preference. We find that...