Article history: Received 18 July 2013 Received in revised form 9 May 2014 Accepted 15 May 2014 Available online 22 May 2014 Highly volatile scenarios, such as those provoked by the recent subprime and sovereign debt crises, have questioned the accuracy of current risk forecasting methods. This paper adds fuel to this debate by comparing the performance of alternative specifications for modelin...

Article history: Received 10 June 2009 Received in revised form 1 August 2010 Accepted 17 November 2010 Available online 29 December 2010 The purpose of this paper is to study the dependence structures between the Chinese market and other major world markets, a reflection of China's increasing integration into the global economy. We used time-varying copula models to show that conditional copul...

The margin system is the clearinghouse’s first line of defense against default risk. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set the next concern of the clearinghouse is overcharge. It is because higher is the overcharge, greater is the investor’s opportunity cost of investing...

This paper used different copula-based GARCH models (Copula-GARCH model and Copula-GJR-GARCH model) to analyze the dependence structure among gold price, stock price index of gold mining companies and Shanghai Composite Index in China. The empirical results found that the suitable margins were skew-t distribution, and the GJR-GARCH marginal distribution had better explanatory ability than the G...

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model generalizes existing regime-switching models that allow for ARCH terms only. The empirical applica...

This paper considers the pricing of options when there are jumps in the pricing kernel and correlated jumps in asset returns and volatilities. Our model nests Duan’s GARCH option models where conditional returns are constrained to being normal, as well as extends Merton’s jump-diffusion model by allowing return volatility to exhibit GARCH-like behavior. Empirical analysis on the S&P 500 index r...

This brief note offers an explicit algorithm for a multivariate GARCH model, called PC-GARCH, that requires only univariate GARCH estimation. It is suitable for problems with hundreds or even thousands of variables. PC-GARCH is compared to two other techniques of getting multivariate GARCH using univariate estimates.

In this paper, we take the advantage of high frequency data to develop option pricing model and select the Realized GARCH model to describe the volatility of assets, use NIG distribution to describe the distribution of underlying assets, and also build the Realized-GARCH-NIG model to price the option. Finally, we obtain the dynamic option pricing model based on the Realized-GARCH-NIG approach. ...

With the increase of wind power as a renewable energy source in many countries, wind speed forecasting has become more and more important to the planning of wind speed plants, the scheduling of dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market, and the operation of power systems. However, the uncertainty of wind speed makes troubles in them. For this reason, a wind speed f...

Modelling and detecting structural changes in GARCH processes have attracted a great amount of attention in econometrics over the past few years. We generalize Dahlhaus and Rao (2006)’s time varying ARCH processes to time varying GARCH processes and show the consistency of the weighted quasi maximum likelihood estimator. A class of generalized likelihood ratio tests are proposed to check smooth...