iran has a complex topography and it consists of rugged, mountainous rims surrounding high interior basins. because of this condition, in some cases the nwp output has a significant error from mesoscale variations induced by the diverse topography.  iran, covering an area of about 1,648,000 km2, is located in the southwest of asia approximately between 25° and 40° n and 44° and 64° e. this is p...

Stock market forecasting is important and interesting, because the successful prediction of stock prices may promise attractive benefits. The economy of Taiwan relies on international trade deeply, and the fluctuations of international stock markets will impact Taiwan stock market. For this reason, it is a practical way to use the fluctuations of other stock markets as forecasting factors for f...

Many forecasting models have been proposed to improve forecasting accuracy. Recently, Chen at al. model which incorporates three concepts of Fibonacci sequence, framework of Song and Chissom's model and weighted method of Yu's model has been proposed as a method to improve forecasting accuracy. However, the issue on lengths of intervals has not been investigated by Chen et al. despite Huarng ad...

Abstract—The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which acco...

background and objectives: efficient cost management in hospitals’ pharmaceutical inventories have thepotential to remarkably contribute to optimization of overall hospital expenditures. to this end, reliable forecasting models for accurate prediction of future pharmaceutical demands are instrumental. while the linear methods are frequently used for forecasting purposes chiefly due to their sim...

In this study, we investigate the forecasting accuracy of motherboard shipments from Taiwan manufacturers. A generalized Bass diffusion model with external variables can provide better forecasting performance. We present a hybrid particle swarm optimization (HPSO) algorithm to improve the parameter estimates of the generalized Bass diffusion model. A support vector regression (SVR) model was re...

 Abstract—Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) ap...

Application of support vector regression (SVR) with chaotic sequence and evolutionary algorithms not only could improve forecasting accuracy performance, but also could effectively avoid converging prematurely (i.e., trapping into a local optimum). However, the tendency of electric load sometimes reveals cyclic changes (such as hourly peak in a working day, weekly peak in a business week, and m...

Abstract—The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which acco...