نتایج جستجو برای: forecast combination
تعداد نتایج: 405902 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
In spite of widespread criticisms, macroeconometric models are still most popular for forecasting and policy analysis. When the most recent data available on both the exogenous and the endogenous variable are preliminary estimates subject to a revision process the estimators of the coeecients are aaected by the presence of the preliminary data, the projections for the exogenous variables are aa...
Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for these efforts, a seasonal forecast system is experimented with here. JISAO's Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions ...
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that perspective. The literature on forecast evaluation predominantly assumes that macroeconomic forecasts are gene...
This article compares the forecast accuracy of different methods, namely prediction markets, tipsters and betting odds, and assesses the ability of prediction markets and tipsters to generate profi ts systematically in a betting market. We present the results of an empirical study that uses data from 678–837 games of three seasons of the German premier soccer league. Prediction markets and bett...
over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...
In a recent study [1] we have conducted a large scale empirical comparison of seven different machine learning models for time series forecasting using the M3 benchmark data. The outcome of this study is that the standard multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) have turned out to be respectively the first and the second best methods. Taking cue from this...
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