This paper derives semi-analytical pricing formulae for geometric average options (GAO) within a stochastic volatility framework. Assuming a general mean reverting process for the underlying asset and a square-root process for the volatility, the cross-moment generating function is derived and the cumulative probabilities are recovered using the Gauss-Laguerre quadrature rule. Fixed and floatin...

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model generalizes existing regime-switching models that allow for ARCH terms only. The empirical applica...

This paper investigates the contribution of fundamentals to the persistence of currency crises by identifying the determinants of high volatility in the exchange market pressure index (empi) for some new EU member states. The Markov switching model is utilised to identify the high volatility of empi, and a linear regression analysis is conducted to find the sources of the transition probability...

this paper examines the impact of 2005 presidential election of iran on the tehran stock exchange volatility as a political shock. it uses garch family (fiegarch, egarch, and garch) and markov regime switching (mrs) models as the analytical frameworks for the main the stock daily prices index. our findings confirm statistical validity of arima – fiegarch-x and ar(1) mrs as appropriate specifica...

this paper investigates the asymmetry in volatility of returns for the iranian stock market using the daily closing values of the tehran exchange price index (tepix) covering the period from march 25, 2001 to july 25, 2012, with a total of 2743 observations. to this end, two sets of tests have been employed: the first set is based on the residuals derived from a symmetric garch (1,1) model. the...

abstract main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate misalignment on wheat’s producer estimates (pse), using the 1989-2007 period’s data. for this purpose, vector error correction model (vecm) along with the use of real exchange rate based on purchasing power party (ppp) was applied to estimate nominal equilibrium exchange rates. then, by using market price suppor...

Volatility (or risk) is a key variable in many areas of finance, and there are many applications that require an accurate estimate of volatility. One important application is in designing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. Engle (1982) proposed an autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which allows the conditional variance to change over time. This model has been extended ...

Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the underlying exchange rates. After a discussion of trading mechanisms and trader types, the linkage between futures trading activity and spot ma...