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export is an important factor in economic development and the creation of regional agreements is one of the ways to facilitate trade and exports; but measuring the success rate of these agreements is one of the challenges of this field. in this study, we compared the factors affecting agricultural exports and imports in the eco and european :union: countries. the purpose of this study was to as...

Experimental data on social preferences present a number of features that need to be incorporated in econometric modelling. We explore a variety of econometric modelling approaches to the analysis of such data. The approaches under consideration are: the random utility approach (in which it is assumed that each possible action yields a utility with a deterministic and a stochastic component, an...

Background and aims: Since accurate forecasts help inform decisions for preventive health-careintervention and epidemic control, this goal can only be achieved by making use of appropriatetechniques and methodologies. As much as forecast precision is important, methods and modelselection procedures are critical to forecast precision. This study aimed at providing an overview o...

PARTIAL INFORMATION FRAMEWORK: BASIC THEORY AND APPLICATIONS Ville A. Satopää Shane T. Jensen Lyle H. Ungar Many real-world decisions depend on accurate predictions of some future outcome. In such cases the decision-maker often seeks to consult multiple people or/and models for their forecasts. These forecasts are then aggregated into a consensus that is inputted in the final decision-making pr...

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on ...

We propose a dynamic econometric microstructure model of trading, and we investigate how the dynamics of trades and trade composition interact with the evolution of market liquidity, market depth, and order flow. We estimate a bivariate generalized autoregressive intensity process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades for 16 actively traded stocks over 15 years of transaction ...

In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The modeling framework incorporates diurnal and annual periodicity modeling by peri...

Central Banks regularly make forecasts, such as the Fed’s Greenbook forecast, that are conditioned on hypothetical paths for the policy interest rate. While there are good public policy reasons to evaluate the quality of such forecasts, up until now, the most common approach has been to ignore their conditional nature and apply standard forecast e¢ ciency tests. In this paper we derive tests fo...