This paper assumes that output depends on a large number of variables, but that economic theory has only revealed a subset of these variables. The variables that determine output include exogenous shocks, as well as endogenous variables that depend on both the exogenous variables and agents’ expectations. This paper examines a policy maker’s attempts to forecast output under two different types...

We study the monetary instrument problem in a model of optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary policy. The policy problem is cast as a dynamic game between the central bank, the fiscal authority, and the private sector. We show that, as long as there is a conflict of interest between the two policy-makers, the central bank’s monetary instrument choice critically affects the Markov-perfect Nas...

In practice, central banks have been confronted with a trade-o¤ between stabilising in‡ation and output when dealing with rising oil prices. This contrasts with the result in the standard New Keynesian model that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do, even when an oil shock leads to large output drops. To reconcile this apparent contradiction, this paper investigates how ...

We characterize monetary and fiscal policy rules to implement optimal responses to a substantial decline in the natural rate of interest, and compare them with policy decisions made by the Japanese central bank and government in 1999—2004. First, we find that the Bank of Japan’s policy commitment to continuing monetary easing until some prespecified conditions are satisfied lacks history depend...

This paper explores the similarity of the underlying economic problems that lead to the establishment of (a) independent central banks to operate national monetary policies and (b) independent regulatory agencies for telecommunications and other utility service industries. We show that, in both cases, the adoption of agencies independent of government results from the need to achieve credibilit...

On the Bilateral Trade Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 Countries The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE...

We compare two ways of modeling Calvo-type wage stickiness. One in which each household is the monopolistic supplier of a differentiated type of labor input (as in Erceg, et al., 2000) and one in which households supply a homogenous labor input that is transformed by monopolistically competitive labor unions into a differentiated labor input (as in Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 2006a,b). We show tha...

This study examines the convergence patterns of Euro Area (EA) 17 countries’ sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to German bund) over the period of March 2002 to December 2015, by employing the convergence algorithm developed by Phillips and Sul (2007). The empirical findings suggest rejection of full convergence across the EA17 countries’ bond yields spreads, and the presence of a certain n...

How do di¤erent levels of government debt a¤ect the optimal conduct of monetary and …scal policies? And what do these optimal policies imply for the evolution of government debt over time? To provide an answer, this paper studies a standard monetary policy model with nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition and adds to it a …scal authority that issues nominal non-state contingent debt, l...