This paper develops a dual-self model that is compatible with modern dynamic macroeconomic theory and evidence, and shows how it leads to a wide range of behavioral anomalies concerning risk, including the Allais paradox. We calibrate the model to obtain a quantitative fit, by extending the simpler “nightclub” model of Fudenberg and Levine [2006] by introducing consumption commitment. We find t...

This paper explores the potential of Business Survey data for the estimation and disaggregation of macroeconomic variables at higher frequency. We propose a multivariate model which is an extension of the Stock and Watson (1991) dynamic factor model, considering more than one common factor and high-frequency cycles. The multivariate model is cast in State Space Form and the temporal aggregation...

This paper introduces a dynamic model of the stochastic repayment behavior exhibited by delinquent credit-card accounts. Based on this model, we construct a dynamic collectability score (DCS) which estimates the account-specific probability of collecting a given portion of the outstanding debt over any given time horizon. The model integrates a variety of information sources, including historic...

We propose an approach to optimally select corporate bond portfolios based on bond-specific characteristics (maturity, credit rating, coupon, illiquidity, past performance, and issue size) and macroeconomic conditions (recessions and macroeconomic uncertainty measures). The approach relies on a parametric specification of the portfolio weights and allows us to consider a large cross-section of ...

We present a model of a dynamic and complex economy in which the creation and the destruction of money result from interactions between multiple and heterogeneous agents. In the baseline scenario, we observe the stabilization of the income distribution between wages and profits. We then alter the model by increasing the flexibility of wages. This change leads to the formation of a deflationary ...

Government Debt as Insurance against Macroeconomic Risk Is there a role for debt beyond curing overaccumulation of capital? Does dynamic efficiency and the infeasibility of debt Ponzi schemes eliminate any Pareto-improving role for a government in a competitive economy with complete markets? Is there an optimal maturity structure of public debt? Using a stochastic Diamond OLG model, we tackle t...

This paper examines the predictive content of several macroeconomic variables for the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to change its target for the Federal funds rate. To take the discrete nature of the target changes and their serial dependence into account we develop forecasting procedures that are based on dynamic extensions of a multinomial logit model. We …nd that the ...

the financial crisis of 2007 showed that the impact of financial markets on macroeconomic developments is deep. the labor market was affected by financial variables. this paper extends the new keynesian model of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (dsge) for the iran economy in three context of an open economy, consider a financial frictions and frictions labor market, the impact of financ...