This paper introduces inventories in an otherwise standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Based on U.S. data we estimate the parameters of our model using Bayesian methods. We find that inventories enter the Phillips curve as an additional and significant driving variable and make the inflation process less backward-looking. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the impulse respons...

In this study, we conducted an oil prices forecasting competition among a set of structural models, including vector autoregression and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Our results highlight two principles. First, forecasts should exploit the fact that real are mean reverting over long horizons. Second, models not replicate high volatility observed in samples. By following ...

In this paper, we develop and apply certain tools to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. In particular, this paper makes three contributions: One, it argues the need for such tools to evaluate the usefulness of the these models; two, it defines these tools which take the form of prior and particularly posterior predictive analysis and p...

Modern policy analysis makes extensive use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These models differ significantly from earlier generations of large-scale econometric models. I review what I see as major progress in the ability of economists to conduct model-based policy analysis. This progress has come through the evolution in the types of models being used and in a refineme...

This note corrects a mistake in the estimation algorithm of the time-varying structural vector autoregression model of Primiceri (2005) and proposes a new algorithm that correctly applies the procedure proposed by Kim, Shephard, and Chib (1998) to the estimation of VAR or DSGE models with stochastic volatility. Relative to Primiceri (2005), the correct algorithm involves a different ordering of...

Abstract This paper presents a two-country DSGE model with state-dependent pricing as in Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999) in which firms price-discriminate across countries by setting prices in local currency. In this model, a domestic monetary expansion has greater spillover effects to foreign prices and foreign economic activity than an otherwise identical model with time-dependent pricing. In...

This is an interesting paper on a timely topic. As the authors argue, the recent global financial crisis has its roots in increased mortgage delinquencies caused by the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States. By what mechanism does such an increase in mortgage delinquencies affect the rest of the economy? And how should policy react to it? To address these issues, the authors devel...

We study sources and consequences of uctuations in the U.S. housing market. Slow technological progress in the housing sector explains the upward trend in real housing prices of the last 40 years. Over the business cycle, housing demand and housing technology shocks explain one-quarter each of the volatility of housing investment and housing prices. Monetary factors explain less than 20 percent...

This study explores three alternative econometric interpretations of dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. (1) A strong econometric interpretation takes the model literally and directly produces a likelihood function for observed prices and quantities. It is widely recognized that under this interpretation, most DSGE models are rejected using classical econometrics and assigned...

Abstract Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. A problem is that there appears to be no exchange rate model that systematically beats a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Economists also find it irksome that theoretical models are unable to explain short-, medium-, and long-run exchange rate movements. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures ...