This paper investigates the relationship between the quarterly opinion poll lead of UK governments over the period 1955-1996, and a set of economic indicators. The hypothesis of a causal link between these variables is often debated, but there is a difficulty in testing the link by conventional econometric methods. These require either stationarity or the I(1) property, but there is strong evid...

The Iranian poultry sector has experienced many significant structural changes in recent years. Such changes may have influenced price dynamics and transmission of shocks through marketing channels especially on retail markets. This paper investigate price transmission, threshold behavior and asymmetric adjustment in poultry sector of Ardebil (AR), east Azerbaijan (EA) and west Azerbaijan (WA) ...

In recent research, Leybourne and Newbold (2003) have shown commonly employed tests of cointegration to exhibit spurious rejection when applied to independent unit root processes subject to breaks in either level or trend. In the present paper, this research is extended to consider the finite-sample properties of cointegration tests which explicitly incorporate structural change. It is shown th...

The local asymptotic power of many popular non-cointegration tests has recently been shown to depend on a certain nuisance parameter. Depending on the value of that parameter, different tests perform best. This paper suggests combination procedures with the aim of providing meta tests that maintain high power across the range of the nuisance parameter. The local asymptotic power of the new meta...

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and tourism development in seven Mediterranean countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the long-run relationship between economic growth and tourism development in a multivariate model with tourism real receipts per capita, the number of international tourist arrivals per capita; real effective exchange rate...

The impact of the choice of the lag length on tests for the number of cointegration relations in a vector autoregressive (VAR) process is investigated. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank remains unchanged if the true data generation process (DGP) is of nite order and a consistent model selection criterion is used for choosing t...

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and com...

This paper examines aggregate money demand relationships in five industrial countries by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Fractional cointegration would imply that, although there exists a long-run relationship, the equilibrium errors exhibit slow reversion to zero, i.e. that the error cor...

Background: Melanoma progression and metastasis is suggested to be mediated by increased accumulation of myeloid derived suppressor cells. Various chemotherapeutic drugs such as 5-Fluorouracil in single low concentration have the capacity, at least in part, to reverse tumor progression by reducing myeloid derived suppressor cellsmediated immunosuppression. Objective: To assess whether multiple ...

This paper investigates the determinants of the real exchange rate using a panel of disaggregated data for the OECD countries. It also marries two literatures -one which uses panel data to measure relationships between changes in exchange rates to changes in the determinants, and the other which uses cointegration techniques to measure the long-run relationship between the level of the exchange...