This paper uses a real options perspective to augment the standard R&D investment model and implements a firm-level empirical analysis to assess the practical significance of market uncertainty and its interactions with strategic rivalry and firm size. We use a measure of firm-relevant market uncertainty along with panel data and find that firms invest less in current R&D as uncertainty about m...

The discussion focuses on three themes. One is the divergence between positions of business associations and concerns of individual entrepreneurs regarding several determinants of investment. Another issue is under what conditions economic growth can be achieved under democracy; why market reforms have generated little private investment in many cases, and which government policies and politica...

This paper assesses total factor productivity (TFP) growth in India, examines the sources of productivity growth, including public and private investment, and estimates the rates of return to public investments in agriculture. The results show that significant TFP growth in the Indian crops sector was produced by investments -primarily in research -but also in extension, markets, and irrigation...

We develop a method for measuring the foresight agents have. We first dichotomize an agent’s information at current date t into knowledge up to date t 1 f and expectations after t 1 f. We then form a residual-based test statistic that allows us to compare prediction errors for econometric models based on different values of f. We illustrate the method, examining investment around tax reforms to...

Theories of the business cycle can be classified into two main groups, exogenous and endogenous, according to the way they explain economic fluctuations—either as responses of the economy to factors that are external (exogenous shocks) or as upturns and downturns of the economic system internally generated (by endogenous factors). In endogenous theories investment is generally a key variable to...

This paper provides a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model in which investors have heterogeneous information and investment opportunities. Informed investors privately receive advance information about future earnings that is unrelated to current earnings. In response to good advance information, stock prices increase and informed investors act as trend chasers, increasing their inve...

This paper discusses the use of fuzzy logic and modeling as a decision making support for long-term investment decisions on financial markets. A simple model is proposed to calculate recommendations for the investors. This research required thorough analysis of historical data that lead to discovery of interesting dependencies between the Dow Jones index, currency pairs, oil price and the VIX v...

This chapter provides a review of the rapidly developing literature on investment performance evaluation. The goals are to summarize the significant forces and contributions that have brought this field of research to its current state of knowledge and to suggest directions for future research. This review is written for a reader who is familiar with financial economics but not the specific lit...