We present a multi-step model to measure portfolio credit risk that integrates exposure simulation and portfolio credit risk techniques. Thus, it overcomes the major limitation currently shared by portfolio models with derivatives. Specifically, the model is an improvement over current portfolio credit risk models in three main aspects. First, it defines explicitly the joint evolution of market...

We propose a theory of credit lines provided by banks to firms as a form of monitored liquidity insurance. Bank monitoring and resulting revocations help control illiquidityseeking behavior of firms insured by credit lines. The cost of credit lines is thus greater for firms with high liquidity risk, which in turn are likely to use cash instead of credit lines. We test this implication for corpo...

Hong Kong Rachel Hardee +852 2263 9918 rachel.hardee @derivativefitch.com Introduction Constant proportion debt obligations (CPDOs) are one of the latest product innovations seen in the structured credit markets. Like other more recent structured credit products, the performance of the issued debt obligations is highly dependent on the mark-to-market (MtM) impact of changes in credit spreads. C...

Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced. We examine this issue using an extensive proprietary data set of contemporaneous CDS transaction prices and quotes by 14 different CDS dealers selling credit protection on the same under...

“Noise” in Ratings: Not Entirely Random I investigate the informational accuracy as opposed to informational content of credit ratings over time. The study presents an empirical analysis of the classification errors. Results suggest that greater the credit risk in the economy, the higher is the error rate. Of all binary classifications tested, classification error for dichotomous class of inves...

The determination of future credit loss distributions constitutes a fundamental challenge in many credit risk applications such as the calculation of economic and regulatory capital as well as the pricing of loans, portfolios or derivatives thereof. Currently, best practice is to assume a one-year risk horizon for the derivation of the credit loss distribution. However, the maturities of most c...

Credit risk is quantified by the loss distribution due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of the counterparty in a financial contract. Default correlation risk refers to the risk that a bundle of risky obligors may default together. To understand the clustering phenomena in correlated defaults, we consider credit contagion models which describe the propagation of financial distress fro...

We consider counterparty risk for Credit Default Swaps (CDS) in presence of correlation between default of the counterparty and default of the CDS reference credit. Our approach is innovative in that, besides default correlation, which was taken into account in earlier approaches, we also model credit spread volatility. Stochastic intensity models are adopted for the default events, and default...