This paper examines predictability in stock return in developed and emergingmarkets by testing long memory in stock returns using wavelet approach. Wavelet-based maximum likelihood estimator of the fractional integration estimator is superior to the conventional Hurst exponent and Geweke and Porter-Hudak estimator in terms of asymptotic properties and mean squared error. We use 4-year moving wi...

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our ...

This paper examines the correlation between stock and bond returns. It first documents that the major trends in stock-bond correlation for G7 countries follow a similar reverting pattern in the past forty years. Next, an asset pricing model is employed to show that the correlation of stock and bond returns can be explained by their common exposure to macroeconomic factors. The link between the ...

As a means of avoiding stock‐outs, safety stocks play an important role in achieving customer satisfaction and retention. However, traditional safety stock theory is based on the assumption of the immediate delivery of the ordered products, which is not a common condition in business‐to‐business contexts. Virtual safety stock theory was conceived to ...

We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices s...

Information published in online stock investment message boards, and more recently in stock microblogs, is considered highly valuable by many investors. Previous work focused on aggregation of sentiment from all users. However, in this work we show that it is beneficial to distinguish expert users from non-experts. We propose a general framework for identifying expert investors, and use it as a...

This paper develops a model of trading in stock and stock index security markets in the presence of transaction costs. We show that the introduction of stock index market improves the dissemination of market-wide information and index trading is more informative about stock market price movements than stock trading. The model generates rich implications on the informativeness of the stock index...

We examined long-term time series of stock status for the temperate tunas Pacific bluefin and albacore in the north Pacific, and characterized temporal changes in the stock status of both species through comparison with tropical tunas in the Western and Central Pacific. The temperate tunas appear to have historically experienced considerable fluctuation in stock status over a long period of tim...

We use daily price indices obtained from the Morgan Stanley Capital International to construct realized volatility for 18 individual stock markets, including the US, and the world stock market. In contrast with the CAPM, we find that volatility by itself does not forecast excess returns in most countries; however, it becomes a significant predictor when combined with the US consumptionwealth ra...