It is well-established that the …nancial time series display some stylized fatcs such as volatility clustering, high kurtosis, low starting and slow-decaying autocorrelation function and the Talyor e¤ect as well. In order to evaluate volatility models’capacity in capturing such facts, we apply both standard and robust measures of kurtosis and autocorrelation of squares to GARCH, EGARCH and ARSV...

This paper focusses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focusses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other mod...

Single equation instrumental variable models for discrete outcomes are shown to be set not point identifying for the structural functions that deliver the values of the discrete outcome. Identi…ed sets are derived for a general nonparametric model and sharp set identi…cation is demonstrated. Point identi…cation is typically not achieved by imposing parametric restrictions. The extent of an iden...

This paper investigates changes in the conduct of U.S. monetary policy. Monetary policy is modeled in the context of the Bernanke-Mihov (1998) structural VAR (SVAR) extended to allow explicitly for the Fed’s forward looking behavior. This is achieved by including its realtime forecasts on in‡ation and unemployment (the “Greenbook” forecasts). Stability tests that exploit the SVAR identifying re...

This paper compares the forecasting performance of the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model with the commonly adopted GARCH model. We examine two major stock indices, FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225, by using the daily range data and the daily close price data over the period 1990 to 2000. Our results suggest that improvements of the overall estimation are achieved when the CARR models are use...

In this paper, we explore a dynamical version of by Aoki and Yoshikawa model (AYM) for an economy driven by demand. We show that when an appropriate Markovian dynamics is taken into account, AYM has di¤erent equilibrium distributions depending on the form of transition probabilities. In the version of the dynamic AYM presented here, transition probabilities depend on a parameter c tuning the ch...

with the exponential growth of social media i.e. blogs and social networks, organizations and individual persons are increasingly using the number of reviews of these media for decision making about a product or service. Opinion mining detects whether the emotions of an opinion expressed by a user on Web platforms in natural language, is positive or negative. This paper presents extensive exper...

Spatial Decentralization and Program Evaluation: Theory and an Example from Indonesia This paper proposes a novel instrumental variable method for program evaluation that only requires a single cross-section of data on the spatial intensity of programs and outcomes. The instruments are derived from a simple theoretical model of government decision-making in which governments are responsive to t...

Value at Risk (VaR) has become the industry standard to measure the market risk. However, the selection of the VaR models is controversial. Simulation Results indicate Historical Simulation has significant positive bias, while GARCH (1,1) has has significant negative bias. Also HS adapts structural change slowly but stable, while GARCH adapts structural break rapidly but less stable. Thus the m...

The final, irreversible step in the duplication and distribution of genomes to daughter cells takes place when chromosomes split at the metaphase-to-anaphase transition. A protease of the CD clan, separase (C50 family), is the key regulator of this transition. During metaphase, cohesion between sister chromatids is maintained by a chromosomal protein complex, cohesin. Anaphase is triggered when...