This paper studies estimation of multiplicative, unobserved components panel data models without imposing the strict exogeneity assumption on the explanatory variables. The method of moments estimators proposed have significant robustness properties; they require only a conditional mean assumption, and apply to models with lagged dependent variables, finite distributed lag models that allow arb...

A new approach is developed to examine potential causality between merger activity and industrial production. The proposed method combines an information criterion based approach to lag optimisation with joint maximum likelihood estimation of an autoregressive distributed lag model and GARCH(1,1) specification. Application to UK data provides significant evidence in support of causality between...

From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added...

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. TodaYamamoto andWald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and ...

Framing is a sophisticated form of discourse in which the speaker tries to induce a cognitive bias through consistent linkage between a topic and a specific context (frame). We build on political science and communication theory and use probabilistic topic models combined with time series regression analysis (autoregressive distributed-lag models) to gain insights about the language dynamics in...