The largest uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial era is that due to aerosols, a substantial fraction of which is the uncertainty associated with scattering and absorption of shortwave (solar) radiation by anthropogenic aerosols in cloud-free conditions (IPCC, 2001). Quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in aerosol influences on climate is critical to und...

sponses to both CO2fertilization and the combined effects of climate change. Their idea is that the use of these simple stand-alone models will allow for a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the differing responses of the more complex models. A similar approach has seen great success with high complexity climate models, so it seems to be have good possibility of success. I generally f...

In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties about future economic growth and technological development, there is a great deal of uncertainty in emissions projections. This paper demonstrates the use of the Determinist...

Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled ...

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply ...

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine challenges uncertainty, complexity constraints associated with applying projections understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation how incorporate uncertainty different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios models, spatiotemporal scales resol...

6 Rapid climate change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population 7 trajectories. Traditional population models, typically built using detailed demographic 8 observations from one study site, can address climate change impacts at one location, but are 9 di cult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. 10 An alternative is to build ...

b a c k g r o u n d  & aim: this study aimed  to estimate  and project  the current  and future disability burden of typhoid fever in iran associated with climate and population to provide best policies for climate change adaptation. methods & materials: years lost due to disabilities (ylds) were measured as burden estimation in this study. the temperature was selected as climate variable. futu...

Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform...