Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison wit...

Both naturally occurring La Niña events and model-projected anthropogenic-driven global warming are associated with widespread drying in the subtropics to midlatitudes. Models suggest anthropogenic drying should already be underway but climate variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales can easily obscure any emerging trend, making it hard to assess the validity of the simulated forc...

Abstract This manuscript applies the recently-created atmospheric river intensity and impacts scale (AR Scale) to European continent. The AR Scale uses an Eulerian perspective based solely upon time series of integrated vapor transport (IVT) over a given geographic location (often represented by model or reanalysis “grid cell”). assigns events with persistent, strong IVT at that one five levels...