It is shown that the volume of trade can be decomposed into proportional proxies for stochastic flows of good news and bad news into the market. Positive (good) information flows are assumed to increase the price of a financial vehicle while negative (bad) information flows decrease the price. For the majority of a sample of ten split-stocks it is shown that the proposed decomposition explains ...

This study extends from Liu and Mei (1992) by further investigation of assets, real estate related securities, which includes both equity and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs), the stocks of builderand owner-companies, and mortgagebacked securities (MBSs). There are five major findings. First, expected excess returns of real estate related securities are more predictable than the e...

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. W...

Recent studies have used the value spread as a predictor of aggregate stock returns to construct cash-flow betas that appear to explain the size and value anomalies. Our evidence suggests that the value spread is not a useful predictor of returns. Two related variables, the book-to-market spread — the book-to-market of value stocks minus that of growth stocks — and the market-to-book spread — t...

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model that captures the high expected returns on value stocks relative to growth stocks, and the failure of the capital asset pricing model to explain these expected returns. To model the difference between value and growth stocks, we introduce a cross-section of long-lived firms distinguished by the timing of their cash flows. Firms with cash flows weig...

The Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on various aspects of life, including the capital market which caused a negative response most stock exchanges around world, Indonesia Stock Exchange. Effecieny Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains that price will always be reflected from information available in or investors tend to rational. However, dramatic events such as COVID-19 allow overreact. results...

We investigate quantitatively the so-called leverage effect, which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks, this correlation is moderate and decays exponentially over 50 days, while for stock indices, it is much stronger but decays faster. For individual stocks, the magnitude of this correlation has a universal value that can be ra...

In this chapter, we conduct a comparative study of various traders following different trading strategies. We design an agent-based artificial stock market consisting of two opposing types of traders: “rational traders” (or “fundamentalists”) and “imitators” (or “chartists”). Rational traders trade by trying to optimize their short-term income. On the other hand, imitators trade by copying the ...