BACKGROUND How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. METHODS Using a randomized within-...

Much is known about predictors of risky sexual behaviors in young adults. Little is known; however, about the contribution of temperament and how temperament interacts with context to influence sexual risk intentions and actual behaviors. Since intentions are closely linked to behavior, knowing how temperament influences these decisions is important in planning interventions. The purpose of thi...

In portfolio selection models, uncertainty plays an important role. The parameter’s uncertainty leads to getting away from optimal solution so it is needed to consider that in models. In this paper we presented a two-stage robust model that in first stage determines the desired percentage of investment in each industrial group by using return and risk measures from different industries. One rea...

Given a causal model of some domain and a particular story that has taken place in this domain, the problem of actual causation is deciding which of the possible causes for some effect actually caused it. One of the most influential approaches to this problem has been developed by Halpern and Pearl in the context of structural models. In this paper, I argue that this is actually not the best se...

Many senrice courses in statistics, in my experience, have degenerated into the presentation of a set of recipes. The prevailing situation extant in many courses was summed up recently by my son, himself a trainee engineer, when he said, "I lean the recipes to pass the exam but I don't really understand the material". In fact the rapidity with which the material in his course has been presented...