Previous analyses of population aging mainly focused on the social security implications of the aging trend. This paper addresses aging in an open economy framework with two regions that have politically responsive fiscal policy regarding education finance. Demographic shocks start an economic growth process but results are sensitive to a critical parameter in the model that indicates return to...

For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy. An emis...

In this article, we collect consumer delinquency data from several economic shocks in order to study the creation of stress test models. We leverage the Dual-time Dynamics modeling technique to better isolate macroeconomic impacts whenever vintage-level performance data is available. The stress test models follow a framework described here of focusing on consumer-centric macroeconomic variables...

This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a small open economy calibrated to represent a "typical" African economy. In our framework, external shocks consist of trade shocks, modeled as fluctuations in the prices of exported primary commodities...

Quantitative analysis of household use of miombo resources is limited, and detailed accounts of a full range of environmental resources are scanty. The present manuscript aims to (a) quantify the contribution of miombo woodlands to the household economy; (b) assess the role of miombo woodlands as safety nets in the face of household level economic shocks; and (c) identify the socio-economic det...

We provide novel evidence on how frictions in the financing of working capital amplify and propagate the effect of economic shocks over time. We propose a test for this idea in a situation where firms must pay for inputs in advance of production, and face credit constraints and seasonal variation in profitability. Persistent input price shocks lead to stronger immediate and longer-term drops on...

The objectives of this study is to investigate the responses of livestock economic variables (namely, output, consumption, prices, labor and capital) to changes in agricultural productivity, monetary, oil revenue and government spending (fiscal policy). To do so, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed for Iran economy disaggregating livestock. Accordingly, the empi...

In recent years, African countries have demonstrated renewed commitment to industrialization as part of a broader agenda to diversify their economies, build resilience to shocks, develop productive capacity for high and sustained economic growth, create employment opportunities and substantially reduce poverty. The renewed commitment to promoting industrial development in Africa is timely. Afri...

This paper studies the sources of economic fluctuations and their implications for exchange rate regime choice in key Latin American countries. In general, external shocks play a limited role in driving output fluctuations in these countries; this absence of common business cycles undermines the case for fixed exchange rates. On the other hand, although there is some evidence that real exchange...