The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore implications this for global mean sea-level (GMSL) change projections 2100 three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 surface air temperature are substantially higher than CMIP5, but thermal expansion not. Using these as input construct GMSL with IPCC AR5 ...

This paper evaluates sea surface temperature (SST) biases of coupled models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6. Overall, CMIP6 perform better than CMIP5 ones reproducing SST climatology, with lower multi-model ensemble mean (MME) globally averaged absolute bias (1.17 vs. 1.31 K). MME global annual shifts from cooling (−0.09 ± 0.52 K) to warming (0.2...

Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal climate science. Here, we compare representation observed SST since 1960 initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from 5th 6th phases Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized hindcasts CMIP6 explain 88% variance post-19...

Abstract Efforts to understand and quantify how a changing climate can impact agriculture often rely on bias-corrected downscaled information, making it important potential biases of this approach. Here, we use multi-model ensemble statistically models, as well the corresponding parent models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), drive statistical panel model U.S. maize yi...

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Abstract Estimating the impacts of climate change on global carbon cycle relies projections from Earth system models (ESMs). While ESMs currently project large warming in high northern latitudes, magnitude and sign future balance Arctic-Boreal ecosystems are highly uncertain. The new generation increased complexity Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is int...

This study provides an assessment of changes in mean and extreme climate northeast Thailand, focusing on the near-future period (2021–2050). Spatiotemporal extremes return values are investigated compared to 1981–2010. Climate model-related uncertainties quantified using 14 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) 8 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 have a higher sensitivity external fo...