Empirical volatility changes in time and exhibits tails, which are heavier than normal. Moreover, empirical volatility has sometimes quite substantial upwards jumps and clusters on high levels. We investigate classical and nonclassical stochastic volatility models with respect to their extreme behavior. We show that classical stochastic volatility models driven by Brownian motion can model heav...

Research has consistently found that implied volatility is a conditionally biased predictor of realized volatility across asset markets. This paper evaluates explanations for this bias in the market for options on foreign exchange futures. No solution considered—including a model of priced volatility risk—explains the conditional bias found in implied volatility. Further, while implied volatili...

In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it might be possible to infer the risk neutral default intensity from the stock option prices. Our option price approximation has a rich implied volatility surfac...

The volatility of a nancial asset is the variance per unit time of the logarithm of the price of the asset. Volatility has a key role to play in the determination of risk and in the valuation of options and other derivative securities. The widespread Black-Scholes model for asset prices assumes constant volatility. The purpose of this chapter is to review the evidence for non-constant volatilit...

In the wake of emerging market turmoil, the role and welfare consequences of volatility have attracted renewed attention. An emerging consensus points to various types of volatility being both a consequence and a determinant of longerterm growth performance. The linkages appear to be context dependent. This paper employs classification tree analysis to explore determinants of consumption volati...

Theory suggests that economic freedom—measured by the Economic Freedom of the World Index (EFW) -may increase or decrease economic volatility. Similar to previous literature, we empirically test the relationship between economic freedom and economic volatility, but we differ from the literature in how we account for (1) changes in EFW, and (2) the nonlinear relationship between freedom and vola...

There is much literature that deals with modeling and forecasting asset return volatility. However, much of this research does not attempt to explain variations in the level of volatility. Movements in volatility are often linked to trading volume or frequency, as a reflection of underlying information flow. This paper considers whether the state of an open limit order book influences volatilit...

Many empirical studies have found a positive relationship between return volatility and trade volume. A number of theoretical papers predict this volume/volatility relationship. In contrast, Jones, Kaul and Lipson (1989) find that return volatility is best explained by transaction counts, rather than volume or average trade size. Our paper tests the robustness of this trade count/volatility res...

Stock market volatility is the systematic risk faced by investors who hold a market portfolio (e.g., a stock market index fund). Schwert (1989b) has undertaken an extensive study of stock market volatility, using historical data back to the 19th century. Some of his major findings are illustrated in Figure 1, which plots quarterly stock market volatility for the post-World War II period.1 The f...