Probabilistic weather forecasting consists of finding a joint probability distribution for future weather quantities or events. It is typically done by using a numerical weather prediction model, perturbing the inputs to the model in various ways, often depending on data assimilation, and running the model for each perturbed set of inputs. The result is then viewed as an ensemble of forecasts, ...

Experiments were conducted to quantify the impact of satellite data (Earth Observations from Space—EOS) on the determination of current and future atmospheric state. These experiments have examined two different time periods using two different operational forecast models. The results show that, in the southern hemisphere, the accuracy of a no-satellite data 24-hour (one day) forecast is of the...

The National Weather Service (NWS) recently began providing static inundation maps at selected river forecast points through the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web pages. Positive feedback has motivated efforts to expand the forecast mapping program. In order to expand this mapping program efficiently and effectively, we need a more objective basis for determining where static fo...

Many plant disease outbreaks are triggered by suitably warm temperatures during periods of leaf wetness. Measurements or estimations of leaf wetness duration provided by Agrometeorologists have allowed Plant Pathologists to devise weather timed spray schemes which often reduce the number of sprays required to control plant diseases, thus lowering costs and benefitting the environment. In the ne...

A National Weather Service priority, as stated in the FY07-11 Baseline Assessment, is to “Disseminate and deliver NOAA’s information and services.” An important component of NOAA's information data base is the forecast data from NOAA Atmospheric, Ocean and Climate numerical weather prediction (NWP) models operationally prepared at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Recomm...

Over the past 40 years there have been significant improvements in weather forecasting. These improvements are primarily due to (1) improved model physics and increased numerical grid resolution made possible by ever-increasing computational power, and (2) improved model initialization made possible by the use of satellite-derived remotely sensed data. In spite of these improvements, however, w...

Temperature forecasting and rain forecasting in today's environment is playing a major role in many fields like transportation, tour planning and agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to provide a real time forecasting to the user according to their current position and requirement. The simplest method of forecasting the weather, persistence, relies upon today's conditions to forecast the c...

A method for probabilistic forecast of agricultural yield depending on meteorological variability, i.e. forecast of agrometeorological resources, is discussed. Forecast is based on the category of meteorologically possible yield (MPY)–the maximum possible yield for a given variety in the existing meteorological conditions. The forecasting process is realized by a potato production process model...

During peak periods of operation, the National Airspace System (NAS) suffers from limited resources. Traffic Flow Management (TFM) is responsible for adjusting traffic flow demand to meet the available capacity. In the case of airports, TFM uses the Ground Delay Program (GDP) to allocate the constrained runway resources. This paper describes a tool for forecasting the likelihood of a GDP at an ...