The National Hurricane Center and the National Hurricane Research Laboratory joined forces in a n effort t o improvc techniques for forecasting hurricanc motion in the spring of 1959 when the latter moved its headquarters from West Palm Beach to Miami into offices adjacent to those occupied by the principal hurricane forecast office in the United States. Results now available from verification ...

Axisymmetric vortices with high level of axial vorticity are considered. Consistency conditions result in so-called compensating regime of the vortical flow. The power laws associated with this regime are applied to a series of vortices of different scales: bathtub vortex, tornadoes and tropical cyclones. Key–Words: vortical flows, bathtub vortex, tornado, tropical cyclone

As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of arbitrary grid boxes, and the spatial smoothing of the historical data is constructed optimally according to a clearly defined merit function.

We describe results from the fifth stage of a project to build a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks. The previous stages considered genesis and the shape of tracks. We now consider in more detail how to represent the lysis (death) of tropical cyclones. Improving the lysis model turns out to bring a significant improvement to the track model overall.

This paper presents numerical solutions and idealized analytical solutions of axisymmetric, f -plane models of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. In the numerical model, the boundary layer radial and tangential flow is forced by a specified pressure field, which can also be interpreted as a specified gradient balanced tangential wind field vgr(r) or vorticity field ζgr(r). When the specified ...

We review the four main paradigms of tropical cyclone intensification that have emerged over the past five decades, discussing the relationship between them and highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. A major focus is on a new paradigm articulated in a series of recent papers using observations and highresolution, three-dimensional, numerical model simulations. Unlike the three previous pa...