We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks, later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks, and the Great Recession exhibited large negative shocks to both demand and supply. We estimate “macro risk factors” th...

Demand forecasting and decision making processes are among the key activities which directly affect the performance of successful supply chain networks. The variability of the demand information between the stages of the supply chains and the increase in this variability as the demand data moves upstream from the customer to consequent stages of the supply chain networks is called Bullwhip Effe...

Construction material supply chains have evolved over time to base production and materials management decision-making on demand information from the immediate downstream node in the supply chain. This myopic view leads to demand signal amplification as individual upstream nodes attempt to forecast and fulfill orders. Further compounding this demand distortion is the fact that a great amount of...

Production decisions in a manufacturing supply chain are no longer driven by manual systems based on instinct and experience. They are regulated interactions between analysts, production managers and their collective manipulation of policies within the production information system. This paper studies the demand behavior in manufacturing supply chains and its relationships to the logic of produ...