In this paper, I review the history of “core” PCE inflation and its rationale: remove volatile items with transitory shocks to better highlight trend in inflation. Structural changes process imply that, on a “reducing volatility” basis, list excluded from basket (aside gasoline) is far optimal. This true whether one assesses volatility basis weighted component monthly, o...

Much of the inflation forecasting literature examines the ability of macroeconomic indicators to accurately predict mean inflation. For the period after 1984, existing empirical evidence largely suggests that the likelihood of accurately predicting inflation using macroeconomic indicators is no better than a random walk model. We expand the scope of inflation predictability by exploring whether...

Background: One of the most fundamental objectives of the macroeconomic policies is to realize the relationship between economic growth and inflation. According to some monetary policy advisors, inflation reflects erosion in consumer’s purchasing power. Inflation as an important economic variable, affect the economic growth and its impact on economic growth has been proposed in various theories...

Abstract. We place observational likelihood constraints on braneworld and non-commutative inflation for a number of inflaton potentials, using Planck, WMAP polarization and BAO data. Both braneworld and non-commutative scenarios of the kind considered here are limited by the most recent data even more severely than standard general-relativity models. At more than 95% confidence level, the monom...

this paper surveys the persian monetary crises due to economic sanctions and speculative attacks that leads to high inflation. economic sanctions are associated with various forms of trade barriers and restriction on financial transactions. among the most influential sanctions on iran's oil export and central bank sanctions are noted that their aims to reduce iran's oil revenues and devaluation...

On October 6, 1979, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System embarked on an aggressive policy to lower the inflation rate, which then stood near 12 percent. That effort succeeded: By the mid-1980s, the rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reduced to less than 4 percent on a three-year moving-average basis, as shown in figure 1. The commonly reported measur...

We point out that, if quantum field renormalization is taken into account and the counterterms are evaluated at the Hubble-radius crossing time or few e-foldings after it, the predictions of slow-roll inflation for both the scalar and the tensorial power spectrum change significantly. This leads to a change in the consistency condition that relates the tensor-to-scalar amplitude ratio with spec...