This paper addresses the problem of increasing order variances in multi-tier supply chains. The majority of current approaches for reducing this problem, namely the bullwhip effect, rely on information sharing and/or cooperative planning in inter-organizational systems. Due to multiple barriers in implementing these approaches, we maintain the local autonomy of the participants in the supply ch...

Bullwhip costs money, wastes resources, and loses customers. So drawing on a basis of analytical, simulation and experiential techniques, the authors’ present four material flow principles which can be recommended as strategies to reduce the bullwhip effect. A real-world case study from the precision mechanical engineering sector is employed to illustrate the effect of rapid response manufactur...

In this paper, we present a new predictive hybrid model using discrete wavelet transform (DWT), and the artificial neural network (ANN) to reduce the bullwhip effect of demand in supply chain to obtain a real amount of final customer demand. Also, we compare our result with more comprehensive sample of previous research to extend the scope of our study. In this new research our methodology is c...

Bullwhip effect reduces the efficiency, responsiveness, and value of supply chain. There are some indirect causes like lead time, number echelons, direct bullwhip such as rationing or price variation. Due to capacity constraints, retailers forced experience their demands. Fear usually gives rise manipulable demand hence increases effect. Moreover, if retailer’s is sensitive then it will cause T...

One of the problem supply chain management is a bullwhip effect that causes less than an ideal system chain.. As well as UMKM Marrone, which industry home-based production brownies, often experienced due to forecasting are not properly uodated and fluctuations in demand certain season.
 The one swelling cost production. However, can be anticipated by using method vendor managed inventory w...

Supply chains in industry have a very complex structure. The influence of many parameters is not known. Therefore the control of the orders, material flow and stock is rather difficult. In order to recognize the basic relationships between the parameters, a very simple model was set up. It consists of 4 identical stages. In all stages the stock is closed-loop controlled to a nominal stock. Ther...

An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip eeect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we quantify this eeect for simple, two-stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. Our model includes two of the factors commonly assumed to cause the bullwhip eeect: demand forecasting and ...

The bullwhip effect, a well known phenomenon occurring in business activity where the demand information is not fully shared among the members of supply chain, conducts the upstream manufacturer to excessively anticipate the demand capacity of the downstream retailer. The manufacturer improperly decides the amount of the products not only to raise the inventory cost on the way of poorly handlin...

In this paper, we study managers’ errors in decision making for inventory replenishment and how these errors affect their inventory system. In particular, primarily for its expected relationship with the bullwhip effect, we focus on the error of the over-reaction to demand changes and a common contributor of decision making biases: forecasting of demand. By over-reaction we mean that the manage...

We develop a theoretical model about how organizations cope with the bullwhip effect created by consumer demand uncertainty through product modularity and information sharing across the supply chain. Unpredictability of consumer demand is likely to accentuate inventory flows in the supply chain. Information sharing and product modularity can be used by organizations to mediate the impact of unc...