Consider the Rational Expectations price history of an Arrow-Debreu security that matures in the money: p1; p2; :::; pT . Past information can be used to predict the return (pt+1 pt)=pt. Now consider a simple alternative performance measure: (pt+1 pt)=pt+1. It di ers from the return only in that the future price is used as basis. This variable cannot be forecasted from past information. The res...

Canonical analysis of the classical general equilibrium model demonstrates the existence of an open and dense subset of standard economies that possess fully-revealing rational expectations equilibria. This paper shows that the analogous result is not true in urban economies under reasonable modifications for this field. An open subset of economies where none of the modified rational expectatio...

We present a decision theoretic framework in which agents are learning about market behavior and that provides microfoundations for models of adaptive learning. Agents are ‘internally rational’, i.e., maximize discounted expected utility under uncertainty given consistent subjective beliefs about the future, but agents may not be ‘externally rational’, i.e., may not know the true stochastic pro...

This paper attempts a resolution of the Fisher effect puzzle in terms of estimator choice. Using both short-term and long-term interest rates for 14 OECD countries, we find ample evidence supporting the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in which interest rates move oneto-one with inflation. Our results suggest that the reason why the Fisher effect has not found support internationally lies ...

We study the optimal anticipated policy in a pure-currency economy with flexible prices and a nondegenerate distribution of money holdings. The economy features a business cycle and lump-sum monetary injections have distributional effects that depend on the state of the cycle. We parsimoniously characterize the dynamics of the economy and study the optimal regulation of the money supply as a fu...

We present a simple theoretical framework that integrates the notion of the natural or neutral interest rate, liquidity preference theory, and the monetary policy practice by modern central banks. We claim that this theory explains the conditions under which an economy will experience an aggregate demand deficiency problem within a modern institutional setting. Contrary to the predictions of th...

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results ...

This paper extends the recent investigation of Tahvonen and Withagen (1996, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20, 1775}1795) for costly and thus sluggish instead of instantaneous reductions in emissions. In addition to the social optimum, the paper investigates the competitive equilibrium. This plausible extension allows to derive limit cycles as the outcome for both, the social optimum ...

Since Keynes no economist would deny that expectations under uncertain conditions matter for the conduct of monetary policy, but still opinions about their formation are diverse. We build a hybrid New Keynesian Framework to analyze the in‡uence of model uncertainty on optimal interest rates under di¤erent degrees of rational forward-looking behavior, using recently developed robust control tech...

Donald Trump’s election was a significant surprise. The reaction of company stock prices to the election reflects shifts in investor expectations about economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. High-beta stocks outperformed, presumably due to strengthened growth expectations. Expectations of significant corporate tax cuts boosted high-tax firms, but hurt firms with significant net operating los...