Introduction With prediction markets growing in number and in prominence in various domains, the construction of a modeling framework for the behavior of prices on traded contracts has become an increasingly important endeavor. In this paper, we present such a theoretical framework, as we attempt to use mar-tingale theory in the analysis of prediction market price fluctuations. The application ...

Several authors have claimed that prediction is essentially impossible in the general theory of relativity, the case being particularly strong, it is said, when one fully considers the epistemic predicament of the observer. Each of these claims rests on the support of an underdetermination argument and a particular interpretation of the concept of prediction. I argue that these underdeterminati...

According to the difference of the modeling theories, the stock yield prediction models can be divided into two sorts. One is the traditional fluctuation rate prediction model based on statistical theory, and the other is the innovational prediction model based on theories such as NN, grey theory, support vector machines (SVM) and so on. In this article, we introduced these two models and their...

short-term traffic flow forecasting plays a significant role in the intelligent transportation systems (its), especially for the traffic signal control and the transportation planning research. two mainly problems restrict the forecasting of urban freeway traffic parameters. one is the freeway traffic changes non-regularly under the heterogeneous traffic conditions, and the other is the success...

With the pervasion of social media, trust has been playing more of an important role in helping online users collect reliable information. In reality, user-specified trust relations are often very sparse; hence, inferring unknown trust relations has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Social status is one of the most important concepts in trust, and status theory is developed to hel...

Awareness of the level of river flow and its fluctuations at different times is one of the significant factor to achieve sustainable development for water resource issues. Therefore, the present study two hybrid models, Wavelet- Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Interference System (WANFIS) and Wavelet- Artificial Neural Network (WANN) are used for flow prediction of Gamasyab River (Nahavand, Hamedan, Iran...

Awareness of the level of river flow and its fluctuations at different times is one of the significant factor to achieve sustainable development for water resource issues. Therefore, the present study two hybrid models, Wavelet- Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Interference System (WANFIS) and Wavelet- Artificial Neural Network (WANN) are used for flow prediction of Gamasyab River (Nahavand, Hamedan, Iran...

Original and cumulative prospect theory differ in the composition rule used to combine the probability weighting function and the value function. We test these composition rules by performing a novel test. We apply estimates of prospect theory’s weighting and value function obtained from two-outcome cash equivalents, a domain where original and cumulative prospect theory coincide, to three-outc...

The color of the blends of pre-colored fibers depends on the ratio of each fiber in the blends. Some theories have been introduced for color matching of blends of pre-colored fibers. Most however, are restricted in scope and accuracy. Kubelka and Munk presented the most applicable theory, which is still used in industry. In this work, the classical Kubelka-Munk method for color prediction of a ...