Nowadays one of the most important issues in our economy, both from economic and political view is the link between monetary policy and business cycle fluctuations. Amongst the shocks related to the supply side, the shock of oil price is the important factor that has affected the world economy since the 1970s. This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and oil price shocks on the busine...

Abstract The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between Value at Risk (VaR) and expected returns from 2002 to 2013 in Tehran’s Stock Exchange. In this study parametric value at risk, which considers the distribution of returns as normal and the historical value at risk as abnormal, was used to test the presence of the volatility anomaly in the companies listed i...

this paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic aggregates in iran, by applying the techniques of the long–run granger non–causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto (1995). we test the causal relationships between the tepix index and the three macroeconomic variables: money supply, value of trade balance, and industrial production using quarterly data for t...

this paper examines the relationship between accounting conservatism and informational content of earnings using data of 167 firms listed on the tehran stock exchange during 2004-2013. accounting conservatism is measured based on khan and watts' (2009) model and feltham and ohlsson (1995) price model and easton and hariss (1991) return models were used to evaluate the informational content...

In this paper we examine the interaction of stock markets of different countries by constructing networks that connect 32 selected stock market indices from different countries. In the network being constructed, the nodes are the stock market indices and the edges are connections between the indices. Each edge has an edge weight equal to the cross-correlation between the pair of connecting indi...

A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile-based tail risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modeling uncertainty. The proposed approach based on a two-step estimation procedure. first step involves value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts at grid quantile levels. range parametric semiparametric models selected as model universe in weights are estimated by optimizin...

This study addresses problem of predicting direction of movement of stock price and stock market index for Indian stock markets. The study compares four prediction models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Naive Bayes (NB) with two approaches for input to these models. The first approach for input data involves computation of ten technical par...

This article studies the international integration of the national stock markets of sixteen European countries. The international financial market is represented by two indices: a European index and a World index. The methodology of co-integration, used in this article, is the proper econometrical solution for the treatment of non-stationary series as those used in the present research. Complem...