Many studies have reported that the confidence people have in their judgments exceeds their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However, some common analyses confound systematic psychological effects with statistical effects that are inevitable if judgments are imperfect. We present three experiments using new methods to separate systematic effects from t...

We use NetLogo to design a simple multi-agent environment to explore organizational decision processes. Our work builds on the original insight of the "Garbage Can Model" of organizational choice (GCM) proposed by M. Cohen, J. March, and J. Olsen (1972). In this model organizations are viewed as crossroads of time-dependent flows of four distinct classes of objects: "problems," "solutions," "pa...

Decisions are often based on predictions of the hedonic consequences of future events. We suggest that people make such predictions by imagining the event without temporal context (atemporal representation), assuming that their reaction to the event would be similar to their reaction to the imagined event (proxy reactions), and then considering how this reaction might change were the event disp...

This study tests between two modern theories of decision making. Rankand sign-dependent utility (RSDU) models, including cumulative prospect theory (CPT), imply stochastic dominance and two cumulative independence conditions. Configural weight models, with parameters estimated in previous research, predict systematic violations of these properties for certain choices. Experimental data systemat...

The base line model in scholarly research on decision-making has usually been a rational model where the inherent ideology is value maximization through efficiency and effectiveness. However, other decision models have been needed to explain those organizational choices that do not satisfy the conditions of rationality. In this paper automatic decision making, or automaticity, is argued to be o...

This research investigated the link between ethical leadership and performance using data from the People’s Republic of China. Consistent with social exchange, social learning, and social identity theories, we examined leader–member exchange (LMX), self-efficacy, and organizational identification as mediators of the ethical leadership to performance relationship. Results from 72 supervisors and...

This concluding article in the special issue of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes on the foundations of knowledge transfer in organizations argues that the creation and transfer of knowledge are a basis for competitive advantage in firms. The article builds on a framework of knowledge reservoirs to show why knowledge transfer can be difficult and to identify the kinds of know...

0749-5978/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Inc. A doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2010.04.002 * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (R. Feh (M.J. Gelfand). Apologies are useful social tools that can act as catalysts in the resolution of conflict and inspire forgiveness. Yet as numerous real-world blunders attest, apologies are not always effective. Whereas many lead to forgiveness an...

8.1 Two Research Conundrums..................................................................................................134 8.1.1 Lindblom’s Theory of Administrative Incrementalism...........................................134 8.1.2 Wildavsky’s Theory of Budgetary Incrementalism.................................................135 8.1.3 The Diverse Meanings of Budgetary “Incrementalism”.......