Abstract- In a typical competitive electricity market, a large number of short-term and long-term contracts are set on basis of energy price by an Independent System Operator (ISO). Under such circumstances, accurate electricity price forecasting can play a significant role in improving the more reasonable bidding strategies adopted by the electricity market participants. So, they cannot only r...

This paper presents the adaptation of CORBFN, an evolutionary cooperative-competitive hybrid algorithm for the design of Radial Basis Function Networks, for short-term forecasting of the price of extra virgin olive oil. In the proposed cooperative-competitive environment, each individual represents a Radial Basis Function, and the entire population is responsible for the final solution. In orde...

Electricity price forecasting is a hypercritical issue due to the involvement of consumers and producers in electricity markets. Price forecasting plays an important role in planning and managing economic operations related with the electrical power (bidding, trading) and other decisions related with load shedding and generation rescheduling. It is also useful for optimization in electrical ene...

agricultural prices have a high fluctuation and forecasting may help decision making effectively. the aim of this study was to forecast the nominal and real prices of sugar beet and to recognize the appropriate forecasting model. initially the stationary of the series was tested. in order to investigate whether the series are stochastic, the nonparametric test of vald-wulfowitz and parametric t...

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importa...

The expertise of electricity load forecasting has developed over decades. Some of the best load forecasting models use this expertise to improve the load forecasting accuracy by splitting the forecasting problem into sub-problems such as for weekend/weekday and peak/off peak. This research is designed to evaluate a method based on boosting algorithms to split the data into sub-problems for pric...

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shock...

International trade has been playing an extremely significant role in China over the last 20 years. This paper is aimed to investigate and understand the relationship between China’s macro-economy and oil price from this new perspective. We find strong evidence that the increase of China’s price level resulting from oil price shocks is statistically less than that of its main trade partners’. T...

Analysis of the characteristics of agricultural product price volatility and trend forecasting are necessary to formulate and implement agricultural price control policies. Taking wholesale cabbage prices as an example, a multiple test methodology has been adopted to identify the nonlinearity, fractality, and chaos of the data. The approaches used include the R/S analysis, the BDS test, the pow...

Abstract I n this paper, the behavior of the real oil price and OPEC and non-OPEC oil production during 1973-2013 are modelled. Interactions among OPEC, non-OPEC oil production, global oil consumption, and the real price of crude oil are estimated using a Structural VAR model (SVAR). After providing evidence for the structural breaks in oil price in 1996, the results indicate that, ac...