This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth through bivariate and multivariate non-parametric Granger causality tests. Apart from assessing the within-country forecasting ability of commonly-employed financial variables, such as the term spread, the stock market returns and the growth of real money supply, we also test for cross-country influences....

We show that collusion and wrong beliefs may cause a dramatic efficiency loss in the Vickrey mechanism for auctioning a single good in limited supply. We thus put forward a new mechanism guaranteeing efficiency in a very adversarial collusion model, where the players can partition themselves into arbitrarily many coalitions, exchange money with each other, and perfectly coordinate their actions...

Long-term comovements of national stock markets in three EMS (European Monetary System) countries—France, Germany and Italy—are examined. The EMS stock markets are found to display long-term comovements governed by two common permanent components. To identify some interpretable sources of such long-term market comovements, the study explores whether they can be linked to similar comovements in ...

This article answers Dr. Humphrey contention on the similarities between monetarist and Austrian approaches to neutrality of money. Monetarists at most only concentrate short term non while Austrians base their analysis in short, medium long neutrality. For more, monetarists lack a true theory capital that could let then understand thet even with flexible markets money would not be neutral term...

Money for Nothing? Universal Child Care and Maternal Employment The strong correlation between child care and maternal employment rates has led previous research to conclude that affordable and readily available child care is a driving force both of cross-country differences in maternal employment and of its rapid growth over the last decades. We analyze the introduction of subsidized, universa...

We document that at business cycle frequency, nominal variables, such as aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates, are more correlated across countries than real output. Since national central banks control the domestic money supply and their objective has been to keep the nominal environment stable this might seem puzzling. We ask whether a simple, transparent standard international b...

Safe and liquid assets, such as Treasury bonds, are money-like instruments that command a convenience yield. We analyze this in a search model of two assets that differ in liquidity and safety. In contrast to the reduced-form approach, which puts the safe and liquid asset in utility function, we explicitly model investors’ trading needs and the trading friction. One new insight from this approa...

How are the optimal tax and debt policies affected if government can default on its debt? We address this question from a normative perspective in an economy with noncontingent debt, domestic default, labor taxes. On one hand, prevents incurring future distortions associated servicing debt. other risk gives rise to endogenous credit limits that hinder government's ability smooth characterize fi...

this article uses seasonal integration and co integration techniques to test the hypothesis of neutrality of money, using data from the iranian economy. seasonal data for the three variables of money supply, output and prices show that (increase in) money supply and the price level are co integrated at zero frequency, but one does not see such a relationship between (increase in) money supply a...

this research follows two aims in case of the iranian economy. first, study of the presence of inflation persistency, and second, looking for an optimal monetary policy rule. results show that inflation in the economy of iran is persistent, in which, short-term and long-term effects of monetary policy should be considered. for this purpose, a loss function for the central bank with arguments of...