This paper analyses the simultaneous impact of various transfer programs on individual labour market transitions in a local Finnish labour market. The purpose is to study if the disincentive situations that arise in hypothetically constructed household models are of empirical importance for the transitions from unemployment into employment and out of the labour force. Cox proportional hazard mo...

In the classical hidden Markov chain (HMC) model we have a hidden chain X , which is a Markov one and an observed chain Y . HMC are widely used; however, in some situations they have to be replaced by the more general “hidden semi-Markov chains” (HSMC), which are particular “triplet Markov chains” (TMC) ) , , ( Y U X T = , where the auxiliary chain U models the semi-Markovianity of X . Otherwis...

The paper attempts to provide forecast methodological framework and concrete models to estimate long run probability of default term structure for Hungarian corporate debt instruments, in line with IFRS 9 requirements. Long run probability of default and expected loss can be estimated by various methods and has fifty-five years of history in literature. After studying literature and empirical m...

‘Iterative conditional fitting’ is a recently proposed algorithm that can be used for maximization of the likelihood function in marginal independence models for categorical data. This paper describes a modification of this algorithm, which allows one to compute maximum likelihood estimates in a class of chain graph models for categorical data. The considered discrete chain graph models are def...

The Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) models are widely applied in various problems. This succes is mainly due to the fact that the hidden model distribution conditional on observations remains a Markov chain distribution, and thus different processings, like Bayesian restorations, are handleable. These models have been recetly generalized to “Pairwise” Markov chains, which admit the same processing po...

aspirin is one of the certified medicines commonly used for the secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (mi). aspirin side effects and gastrointestinal bleeding, in particular, have arisen debates on its use for the primary prevention of mi. the present research evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the use of aspirin in the primary prevention of mi among iranian men with average cardiovasc...

b a c k g r o u n d & aim: the aim of the current study was to investigate the advantages of bayesian method in comparison to traditional methods to detect best antioxidant in freezing of human male gametes. methods  &  materials:   semen  samples  were  obtained  from  40  men  whose  sperm  had  normal criteria. a part of each sample was separated without antioxidant  as fresh and the remaini...

we propose to use a mathematical method based on stochastic comparisons of markov chains in order to derive performance indice bounds‎. ‎the main goal of this paper is to investigate various monotonicity properties of a single server retrial queue with first-come-first-served (fcfs) orbit and general retrial times using the stochastic ordering techniques‎.