Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that it significantly predicts future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do n...

Financial crises are often characterized by sharp reductions in liquidity followed by cascades of falling prices. Researchers are making progress in work to understand the levels of liquidity on a daily basis, but understanding the vulnerability of liquidity to market shocks remains a challenge. We develop an agent-based model with the objective of evaluating the market dynamics that lead the m...

This paper examines how hedge funds manage their market risk according to changes in aggregate liquidity conditions. Using a large sample of equity-oriented hedge funds during the period of 1994–2008, we find strong evidence that hedge-fund managers possess the ability to time market liquidity at both the style category level and the individual fund level. They increase (decrease) their portfol...

The paper develops a model to study the optimal choice of the central bank haircut policy. In the presence of uncertainties regrading liquidity needs and asset prices, there is a trade-off between providing liquidity to constrained agents and controlling the abundance of liquidity in the economy. The choice of the haircut involves balancing impacts on the liquidity positions of agents with diff...

We propose a generic approach to inference in the non-linear, non-Gaussian state space model. This approach builds on recent developments in precision-based algorithms to estimating general state space models with multivariate observations and states. The baseline algorithm approximates the conditional distribution of the states by a multivariate t density, which is then used for integrated lik...

During the recent financial crisis, huge fiscal stimulus packages were initiated and bold actions were taken by monetary authorities in many countries. Inspired by these, I explore the impact of fiscal stimulus when I take financial friction and liquidity trap into account. In particular, I investigate the fiscal multiplier in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which is featured wit...

The zero lower bound problem during the Great Recession has exposed the limits of monetary autonomy, prompting a re-evaluation of the relative benefits of currency pegs and monetary unions (see e.g. Cook and Devereux, 2016). We revisit this issue from the perspective of a small open economy. While a peg can be beneficial when the recession originates domestically, we show that a float dominates...

This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, …rst, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If …scal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consumption, and (iii) directly on the degree of inequality. The analysis, third, suggests that policies and ...

In this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near-zero nominal interest rates as experienced in Japan since the mid-1990s. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of Japan, the United States and the euro area with rational expectations and nominal rigidities. First, we provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the zero bound on...

The paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in an open economy with and without a binding zero bound on nominal interest rates. In particular, a foolproof way of escaping from a liquidity trap is suggested, consisting of a price-level target path, a devaluation of the currency and a temporary exchange rate peg, which is later abandoned in favor of price-level or in‡ation ta...