This study is an attempt to examine the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic variables in selective small open emerging economies in Southeast Asia. A quarterly Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, including 33 countries, was used throughout 1979–2013. The empirical results showed that the target countries were affected by external shocks, especially the shocks in the U.S, Euro are...

When the U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003, many economists feared that the war would lead to a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production, a spike in oil prices, and a woeful economy that would follow the scripts of the oil shocks of 1973, 1978, and 1990. There was in fact a moderate decline in world oil production, and real oil prices increased from $20 in 2001:4 to $62 in 2006:3. But the ailments a...

The downtrend in oil prices beginning in 2014 represents a challenge for smallopen developing and exporting economies like Libya. This stems from the importance of government revenue generated from the natural resource sector in financing government consumption and investment expenditures as well as capital imports. The dependency on the natural resource sector and a relatively weak non-natural...

We quantify the effect of a significant technological innovation, shale oil development, on asset prices. Using stock price changes on major news announcement days allows us to link aggregate stock price changes to shale development activity as well as other oil supply shocks. We exploit cross-sectional variation in industry portfolio returns on announcement days to construct a shale mimicking ...

Output responses to oil-price shocks not only tend to be weaker, but also to peak earlier recently. This paper builds a model that incorporates a realistic structure of US petroleum consumption and explores three possible explanations for the changes. The first is based on deregulation in the transportation sector, which has brought more competition and improved efficiency in the industry. The ...

The significant jump in world crude oil price over the past year has raised great concern over the economic impact that such a price shock may bring about on Taiwan’s economy, which has been characterized by extremely high import-oil dependence. Previous analyses have been tackling similar issue from several different angles, but it has rarely been discussed from a complete view of interactions...

Regarding the fact that each country might be a net oil seller or net buyer, and considering its large share in the whole economy, the price of this commodity as well as its volatility could affect all economies around the world.  The impact of oil price volatility on the economy is seemed to be more dominant in Iran rather than any other developed or emerging economies, especially in recent ye...

This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indi...

The UK has to decide whether to join the other members of the EU in a monetary union. This choice depends in part on the outturns for the economy inside and outside EMU. The UK has chosen to target inflation, and this can involve some 'price level drift', whilst the ECB emphasises 'Price Stability' and would plan to reverse the drift in the price level that might be caused by external shocks su...