This paper presents a small-scale macroeconometric time-series model that can be used to generate short-term forecasts for U.S. output, inflation, and the rate of unemployment. Drawing on both the Bayesian VAR and vector error corrections (VEC) literature, I specify the baseline model as a Bayesian VEC. I document the model’s forecasting ability over various periods, examine its impulse respons...

An artificial neural network (hence after, ANN) is an informationprocessing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central banks use forecasting models based ...

This paper provides the most complete evidence to date on the importance of monetary aggregates as a policy tool in an inflation forecasting experiment. Every possible definition of ‘money’ in the USA is being considered for the full data period (1960 – 2006), in addition to two different approaches to constructing the benchmark asset, using the most sophisticated non-linear artificial intellig...

D espite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 p...

The European Monetary Institute have narrowed down the choice of candidate strategies for a single monetary policy within European Monetary Union to inflation targets or monetary aggregate targets. In practice it is unlikely to be a simple choice between these targets, since all monetary authorities that currently pursue either of these strategies also monitor a wide set of economic and financi...

This lecture describes the United Kingdom’s experience with inflation targeting. It provides an historical perspective to the introduction of inflation targeting, discusses the concept of inflation targets, and compares an inflation targeting regime with money supply and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is noteworthy that inflation targeting is based on the assumption that low inflation is t...

We propose a classroom experiment implementing a simple version of a New Keynesian model that is suitable for courses in intermediate macroeconomics and money and banking. Students play either the role of the central bank or members of the private sector. The central banker is charged with setting interest rates so as to meet twin objectives for inflation and the output gap. Alternatively, the ...

The studies on Phillips curves relating the rate of unemployment to the rate of inflation are the results of the search for a reliable tool for forecasting inflation and implementing monetary policy. The original Phillips curve has attracted considerable attention and since then, it has undergone several important changes. Although the evidence of a negative relationship between the rate of cha...

The P-star inflation model is based on the long-term quantity theory of money and puts together the long-term determinants of the price level and the short-run changes in current inflation. The P-star model-based indicator has replaced the previous monetary policy procedures in a number of countries because it offers by far more information and predictive power than monitoring movements in mone...