Both prices and the volatility of storable agricultural commodity futures contracts have been rising since 2005 and particularly since 2007. This paper aims to answer two principal questions: (i) How has the behavior of these futures prices over time and across maturities changed with the rise of biofuels and their demand-side pressure on corn and related crops?, and (ii) Is there now stronger ...

Yatırımcıların kararlarını etkileyen en önemli faktörlerden birisi kuşkusuz yatırım yapacakları finansal enstrümandan elde edecekleri getirilerin maksimizasyonudur. Dolayısıyla yatırımcıların doğru karar verebilmesi için söz konusu araçlarının getirilerini faktörlerin neler olduğunu bilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Borsa İstanbul Vadeli İşlem ve Opsiyon Piyasasında işlem gören EREGL, ...

This paper generalizes earlier work by G. Larcher and the author about hedging with short-term futures contracts, a problem which was considered in connection with the debacle of the German company Metallgesellschaft. While the original problem corresponded to the simplest possible model for the price process, i.e. Brownian motion, we give here solutions to more general models, i.e. a mean reve...

Motivated by features of low latency data in finance we study in detail discrete-valued Lévy processes as the basis of price processes for high frequency econometrics. An important case of this is a Skellam process, which is the difference of two independent Poisson processes. We propose a natural generalisation which is the difference of two negative binomial processes. We apply these models i...

We consider the problem of filtering and control in the setting of portfolio optimization in financial markets with random factors that are not directly observable. The example that we present is a commodities portfolio where yields on futures contracts are observed with some noise. Through the use of perturbation methods, we are able to show that the solution to the full problem can be approxi...

We introduce a functional representation of time series which allows forecasts to be performed over an unspecified horizon with progressively-revealed information sets. By virtue of using Gaussian processes, a complete covariance matrix between forecasts at several time-steps is available. This information is put to use in an application to actively trade price spreads between commodity futures...

This paper describes and compares different methods of extracting the implied probability distribution of the underlying interest rate futures from the prices of traded options on these futures as well as from past futures prices. These methods are applied to short-term contracts on bank accepted bills trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. The information on the distribution of the underlying...

This paper investigated the hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia from January 2009 to June 2011 which traded under Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Berhad. Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) method was used to compute Minimum-Variance hedging ratio (MVHR), R-squared and hedging effectiveness by using daily data from settlement price of crude palm oil futures contracts and spot...