Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which conn...

I. INTRODUCTION ccurate corporate decisions in an uncertain future environment requires accurate forecasting [1, 2]. As a consequence, significant effort has been invested in developing forecasting methods with enhanced forecasting accuracy, extending established statistical approaches of Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA-methods towards nonlinear methods of ARCH, GARCH, STAR etc. and methods of ...

There is a marked gap between the demands on forecasting and the results that numerical forecasting techniques usually can provide. It is suggested that this gap can be closed by the implementation of experts' qualitative predictions into numerical forecasting systems. A formal analysis of these predictions can then be integrated into quantitative forecasts. In the framework of possibility theo...

Based on the displacement monitoring sequence of cultural heritage, the stability of relics could be judged effectively by forecasting the displacement in the future. Through analyzing advantages and disadvantages of grey forecasting methods and neural network respectively , a new forecasting model of verhuslt radial basis function neural network was proposed. First, in this study,by use of the...

Investment involves the maximisation of return on one’s investment whilst minimising risk. Good forecasting, which often requires expert knowledge, can help to reduce risk. In this paper, we propose a genetic programming based system EDDIE, (which stands for Evolutionary Dynamic Data Investment Evaluator), as a forecasting tool. Genetic programming is inspired by evolution theory, and has been ...

Forecasting of underground pressure for working surface (UPWS) plays an important role in mining technology industry for safety production. The characteristics of UPWS include roof lithologic, mining height of coal seam, geological structure, mining depth, promoting speed of working surface, influence of mining, etc. These factors directly affect the difficulty of forecasting trends in this fie...

Prediction is a complex notion, and different predictors (such as people, computer programs, and probabilistic theories) can pursue very different goals. In this paper I will review some popular kinds of prediction and argue that the theory of competitive on-line learning can benefit from the kinds of prediction that are now foreign to it. The standard goal for predictor in learning theory is t...