In a pandemic, special group is made up of patients with cardiovascular pathology. Cardiovascular diseases are largely associated an increase in mortality and increased risk complications infected the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This determines importance stratification, choice optimal personalized therapy study long-term prognosis myocardial infarction against background infection caused by SARS-CoV-2. ...

Sichuan province serving as the hub of comprehensive transportation in southwest our country, has longest lines China and its freight maintains a healthy development. In order to give quantitative reference for government formulate logistics improvement development policies, determining scale infrastructure construction analyzing situation market, this paper establishes several forecasting mode...

To make optimal decisions, end-users of decision support systems require information accurately describing the uncertainty of the underlying weather forecasts. Air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed are critical surface weather variables in many economic sectors. The generation of sharp and calibrated probabilistic forecasts and their effective presentation to decision makers ar...

This paper applies receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to micro-level, monthly time series from the M3-Competition. Forecasts from competing methods were used in binary decision rules to forecast exceptionally large declines in demand. Using the partial area under the ROC curve (PAUC) criterion as a forecast accuracy measure and paired-comparison testing via bootstrapping, we find ...

The spatial resolution of publicly available numerical weather forecasts is largely limited by the computing resources of the originating weather services. Only selected parameters are available to the public from many weather services. We present a scalable system for distributed computation of high resolution symbiotic numerical weather forecasts. Each forecast is computed on the user’s deskt...

The increment of solar energy production requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance. A forecast of surface solar irradiance allows estimate the energy production, i.e., to minimize the fluctuations in the electric grid supply. In this work a numerical weather forecast model provides surface solar radiation estimations over a coastal region with changeable weather and typically ...

Electricity smart meters record consumption, on a near real-time basis, at the level of individual commercial and residential properties. From this, a hierarchy can be constructed consisting of time series of demand at the smart meter level, and at various levels of aggregation, such as substations, cities and regions. Forecasts are needed at each level to support the efficient and reliable man...

Accurate air-conditioning load forecasting is the precondition for the optimal control and energy saving operation of central air-conditioning system. However, the single forecasting method, such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), grey model (GM), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), has not enough accuracy. In order to improve the accuracy of ...

This paper brings together two important but hitherto largely unrelated areas of the forecasting literature, density forecasting and forecast combination. It proposes a simple data-driven approach to direct combination of density forecasts using optimal weights. These optimal weights are those weights that minimise the ‘distance’, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, betwe...

During the strong 2015/16 El Niño, only normal to below-average precipitation fell across California in the late winter. This disagrees with both predictions by the ensemble mean of forecast models and expectations for strong El Niños. The authors examine one of the possible reasons why this event did not bring expected precipitation to California in the late winter. The maximum equatorial Paci...