We estimate the effect of social capital on the ability of households to insure consumption after unexpected negative shocks. Many theoretical models argue that strong ties to extended family members and to one’s community help protect families when an adult becomes ill or disabled. Using household-level longitudinal data on Indonesian families, we test whether consumption declines less after a...

Multiple attribute search is a central feature of economic life: we consider much more than price when purchasing a home, and more than wage when choosing a job. Nevertheless, while single attribute search problems have been studied extensively, little is known about optimal search in multiple attribute environments. I introduce a partial characterization of optimal sequential search in a probl...

This paper explores empirically whether Japanese consumers became more prudent in the second half of the 1990s, a decade in which Japan registered historically low economic growth. Employing the methodology developed by Dynan (1993), this study uses microlevel data from the Family Savings Survey and the Family Income and Expenditure Survey to estimate the coefficient of prudence for Japanese ho...

Dynamic partial adjustment models of residential electricity demand account for the fact that households may not adjust electricity consumption immediately in response to changes in prices, income, and other relevant factors, because of behavioral habits or adjustment costs for the capital stock of appliances. However, forward-looking behavior is generally neglected. Expectations about future p...

Using a laboratory experiment, we identify whether decision-makers consider it mistake to violate canonical choice axioms. To do this, incentivize subjects report axioms they want their decisions satisfy. Then, make lottery choices which might conflict with axiom preferences. In instances of conflict, give the opportunity re-evaluate decisions. We find that many individuals follow and revise be...

Using a model of household food demand that incorporates regional preferences (tastes) for culturally appropriate food, I investigate whether tastes for quinoa in the Puno region of Peru reduce household nutrition intakes when quinoa prices dramatically increase between 2004 and 2012. Adapting a model from Atkin (2013b) and utilizing data from a national Peruvian household survey (ENAHO), I am ...

JEL classification E52 This paper examines the credibility of the Federal Reserve's monetary targets using survey data on money growth forecasts to measure market expectations. The paper provides two main results. First, there is strong evidence that the monetary targets were credible over the 1978 to 1993 sample period, although credibility fell in the post-1985 period. Second, both the federa...

Several researchers have recently documented a large reduction in output volatility. In contrast, this paper examines whether output has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find the evidence is somewhat mixed. Output seems to have become more predictable at short horizons, but not necessarily at longer horizons. The reduction in unpredictability is mu...

This paper studies, theoretically and experimentally, the effects of overconfidence fake news on information aggregation quality democratic choice in a common-interest setting. We show that exacerbates adverse widespread misinformation (i.e., news). then analyze richer models allow for partisanship, targeted intended to sway public opinion, signals correlated across voters (due media ownership ...

We study the impact of deliberation on intertemporal choices. Using multiple experiments, including a field in Democratic Republic Congo, we show that introduction waiting periods—a policy temporally separates information about choices from themselves—causes substantially less myopic decisions. These results cannot be captured by models exponential discounting nor present bias. Comparing effect...